Related papers: Dynamic Quantile Function Models
Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…
Non-stationarity is an intrinsic property of real-world time series and plays a crucial role in time series forecasting. Previous studies primarily adopt instance normalization to attenuate the non-stationarity of original series for better…
Many modern tech companies, such as Google, Uber, and Didi, utilize online experiments (also known as A/B testing) to evaluate new policies against existing ones. While most studies concentrate on average treatment effects, situations with…
Accurately predicting watch time is crucial for optimizing recommendations and user experience in short video platforms. However, existing methods that estimate a single average watch time often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in…
Functional data such as curves and surfaces have become more and more common with modern technological advancements. The use of functional predictors remains challenging due to its inherent infinite-dimensionality. The common practice is to…
The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…
Deep learning has shown impressive results in a variety of time series forecasting tasks, where modeling the conditional distribution of the future given the past is the essence. However, when this conditional distribution is…
Quantile regression (QR) is becoming increasingly popular due to its relevance in many scientific investigations. However, application of QR can become very challenging when dealing with high-dimensional data, making it necessary to use…
We propose a prediction procedure for the functional linear quantile regression model by using partial quantile covariance techniques and develop a simple partial quantile regression (SIMPQR) algorithm to efficiently extract partial…
Quantitative information flow (QIF) is traditionally defined as the expected value of information leakage over all feasible program runs and it fails to identify vulnerable programs where only limited number of runs leak large amount of…
A dynamical quantum model assigns an eigenstate to a specified observable even when no measurement is made, and gives a stochastic evolution rule for that eigenstate. Such a model yields a distribution over classical histories of a quantum…
Stochastic simulation models effectively capture complex system dynamics but are often too slow for real-time decision-making. Traditional metamodeling techniques learn relationships between simulator inputs and a single output summary…
Cryptocurrency market is known for exhibiting significantly higher volatility than traditional asset classes. Efficient and adequate risk calculation is vital for managing risk exposures in such market environments where extreme price…
Quantifying predictive uncertainty is essential for safe and trustworthy real-world AI deployment. Yet, fully nonparametric estimation of conditional distributions remains challenging for multivariate targets. We propose Tomographic…
A novel dynamical model for the study of operational risk in banks and suitable for the calculation of the Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed. The equation of motion takes into account the interactions among different bank's processes, the…
In this paper, a new estimation method is introduced for the quantile spectrum, which uses a parametric form of the autoregressive (AR) spectrum coupled with nonparametric smoothing. The method begins with quantile periodograms which are…
This article presents a new method for forecasting Value at Risk. Convolutional neural networks can do time series forecasting, since they can learn local patterns in time. A simple modification enables them to forecast not the mean, but…
Statistical learning evolves quickly with more and more sophisticated models proposed to incorporate the complicated data structure from modern scientific and business problems. Varying index coefficient models extend varying coefficient…
The covariance function and the variogram play very important roles in modelling and in prediction of spatial and spatio-temporal data. The assumption of second order stationarity, in space and time, is often made in the analysis of spatial…
It is known that the estimating equations for quantile regression (QR) can be solved using an EM algorithm in which the M-step is computed via weighted least squares, with weights computed at the E-step as the expectation of independent…