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Related papers: Dynamic Quantile Function Models

200 papers

A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-06 Richard Gerlach , Antonio Naimoli , Giuseppe Storti

Fractional cumulative residual entropy (FCRE) is a powerful tool for the analysis of complex systems. Most of the theoretical results and applications related to the FCRE of the lifetime random variable are based on the distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-04 Iona Ann Sebastian , S. M. Sunoj

In the regression problem, L1 and L2 are the most commonly used loss functions, which produce mean predictions with different biases. However, the predictions are neither robust nor adequate enough since they only capture a few conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-14 Faen Zhang , Xinyu Fan , Hui Xu , Pengcheng Zhou , Yujian He , Junlong Liu

We focus on the time-varying modeling of VaR at a given coverage $\tau$, assessing whether the quantiles of the distribution of the returns standardized by their conditional means and standard deviations exhibit predictable dynamics. Models…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-01 Fabrizio Cipollini , Giampiero M. Gallo , Alessandro Palandri

The diffusion model has gained popularity in vision applications due to its remarkable generative performance and versatility. However, high storage and computation demands, resulting from the model size and iterative generation, hinder its…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Junhyuk So , Jungwon Lee , Daehyun Ahn , Hyungjun Kim , Eunhyeok Park

This study proposes a novel method for forecasting a scalar variable based on high-dimensional predictors that is applicable to various data distributions. In the literature, one of the popular approaches for forecasting with many…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-28 Seeun Park , Hee-Seok Oh , Yaeji Lim

Quantum machine learning (QML) models often require deep, parameterized circuits to capture complex frequency components, limiting their scalability and near-term implementation. We introduce \textit{Quantum Random Features} (QRF) and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-30 Akitada Sakurai , Aoi Hayashi , William John Munro , Kae Nemoto

Symbolic Regression (SR) is a well-established framework for generating interpretable or white-box predictive models. Although SR has been successfully applied to create interpretable estimates of the average of the outcome, it is currently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Cas Oude Hoekstra , Floris den Hengst

Modern decision-making processes require uncertainty-aware models, especially those relying on non-symmetric costs and risk-averse profiles. The objective of this work is to propose a dynamic model for the conditional non-parametric…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-18 Marcelo Ruas , Alexandre Street , Cristiano Fernandes

Constructing a more effective value at risk (VaR) prediction model has long been a goal in financial risk management. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric approach and provide a standard paradigm to demonstrate the modeling. We…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-08 Shijia Song , Handong Li

In ordinary quantile regression, quantiles of different order are estimated one at a time. An alternative approach, which is referred to as quantile regression coefficients modeling (QRCM), is to model quantile regression coefficients as…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-02 Paolo Frumento , Matteo Bottai , Iván Fernández-Val

We introduce deep switching auto-regressive factorization (DSARF), a deep generative model for spatio-temporal data with the capability to unravel recurring patterns in the data and perform robust short- and long-term predictions. Similar…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-14 Amirreza Farnoosh , Bahar Azari , Sarah Ostadabbas

This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-05 Donggyu Kim , Minseog Oh , Yazhen Wang

Particulate matter data now include various particle sizes, which often manifest as a collection of curves observed sequentially over time. When considering 51 distinct particle sizes, these curves form a high-dimensional functional time…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-03 Han Lin Shang , Israel Martinez Hernandez

With the ever increasing prominence of data in retail operations, sales forecasting has become an essential pillar in the efficient management of inventories. When facing high demand, the use of backroom storage and intraday shelf…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-17 Marc-Olivier Boldi , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin , Olivier Gallay

We propose a confirmatory dynamic factor model for a large number of stocks whose returns are observed daily across multiple time zones. The model has a global factor and a continental factor that both drive the individual stock return…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-25 Oliver B. Linton , Haihan Tang , Jianbin Wu

Quantile is an important measure in finance and quality assessment in service industry. In this paper, we model the temporal and cross-sectional interactive effect of the quantiles of large-dimensional time series by a latent quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 He Yong , Kong Xin-Bing , Yu Long , Zhao Peng

This article introduces a novel dynamic framework to Bayesian model averaging for time-varying parameter quantile regressions. By employing sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo, we combine empirical estimates derived from dynamically chosen…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-08 Mauro Bernardi , Roberto Casarin , Bertrand Maillet , Lea Petrella

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-14 Erik Spånberg

We are interested in renewable estimations and algorithms for nonparametric models with streaming data. In our method, the nonparametric function of interest is expressed through a functional depending on a weight function and a conditional…

Computation · Statistics 2023-11-27 Yan Chen , Shuixin Fang , Lu Lin