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We consider causal inference in dynamic settings where treatment is assigned by thresholding a state variable that can change over time. There is a large literature on regression-discontinuity methods building on the fact that, in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Aditya Ghosh , Stefan Wager

Causal inference from observational data is an ambitious but highly relevant task, with diverse applications ranging from natural to social sciences. Within the scope of nonparametric time series, causal inference defined through…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-22 Shu Li , Jan Ernest , Peter Bühlmann

Survival analysis is a fundamental area of focus in biomedical research, particularly in the context of personalized medicine. This prominence is due to the increasing prevalence of large and high-dimensional datasets, such as omics and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-23 Carlos García Meixide , Marcos Matabuena , Louis Abraham , Michael R. Kosorok

Event datasets are sequences of events of various types occurring irregularly over the time-line, and they are increasingly prevalent in numerous domains. Existing work for modeling events using conditional intensities rely on either using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Tian Gao , Dharmashankar Subramanian , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Debarun Bhattacharjya , Nicholas Mattei

Regression modeling of recurrent and terminal events continues to present methodological challenges in survival analysis. Existing approaches either make unverifiable assumptions about the dependency structure between the two event types or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Anna Bellach , Michael R. Kosorok

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

We address causal estimation in semi-competing risks settings, where a non-terminal event may be precluded by one or more terminal events. We define a principal-stratification causal estimand for treatment effects on the non-terminal event,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Karina Gelis-Cadena , Michael Daniels , Juned Siddique

Recurrent events, including cardiovascular events, are commonly observed in biomedical studies. Researchers must understand the effects of various treatments on recurrent events and investigate the underlying mediation mechanisms by which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Yan-Lin Chen , Yan-Hong Chen , Pei-Fang Su , Huang-Tz Ou , An-Shun Tai

In studies of recurrent events, joint modeling approaches are often needed to allow for potential dependent censoring by a terminal event such as death. Joint frailty models for recurrent events and death with an additional dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Marie Böhnstedt , Jutta Gampe , Monique A. A. Caljouw , Hein Putter

Recurrent event data are common in clinical studies when participants are followed longitudinally, and are often subject to a terminal event. With the increasing popularity of large pragmatic trials with a heterogeneous source population,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Xinyuan Tian , Maria Ciarleglio , Jiachen Cai , Erich Greene , Denise Esserman , Fan Li , Yize Zhao

We propose a novel deep learning approach to nonparametric statistical inference for the conditional hazard function of survival time with right-censored data. We use a deep neural network (DNN) to approximate the logarithm of a conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-24 Wen Su , Kin-Yat Liu , Guosheng Yin , Jian Huang , Xingqiu Zhao

Alternating recurrent events, where subjects experience two potentially correlated event types over time, are common in healthcare, social, and behavioral studies. Often there is a primary event of interest that, when triggered, initiates a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Abigail Loe , Susan Murray , Zhenke Wu

In randomized trials and observational studies, it is often necessary to evaluate the extent to which an intervention affects a time-to-event outcome, which is only partially observed due to right censoring. For instance, in infectious…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Yutong Jin , Peter B. Gilbert , Aaron Hudson

How should researchers conduct causal inference when the outcome of interest is latent and measured imperfectly by multiple indicators? We develop a general nonparametric framework for identifying and estimating average treatment effects on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-22 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

In this paper we address the challenges posed by non-proportional hazards and informative censoring, offering a path toward more meaningful causal inference conclusions. We start from the marginal structural Cox model, which has been widely…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-15 Jiyu Luo , Denise Rava , Jelena Bradic , Ronghui Xu

It is often of interest to study the association between covariates and the cumulative incidence of a right-censored time-to-event outcome. When time-varying covariates are measured on a fixed discrete time scale, it is desirable to account…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-28 Hongxiang Qiu , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke , Peter B. Gilbert

This paper analyzes the effect of a discrete treatment Z on a duration T. The treatment is not randomly assigned. The confounding issue is treated using a discrete instrumental variable explaining the treatment and independent of the error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Jad Beyhum , Jean-Pierre FLorens , Ingrid Van Keilegom

While recurrent event analyses have been extensively studied, limited attention has been given to causal inference within the framework of recurrent event analysis. We develop a multiply robust estimation framework for causal inference in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-30 Benjamin R. Baer , Trang Bui , Daniel Mork , Robert L. Strawderman , Ashkan Ertefaie

This paper presents a framework for causal inference in the presence of censored data,where the failure time is marked by a continuous variable referred to as a mark.The mark is observed after treatment and is not meaningful when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-20 Lianqiang Qu , Long Lv , Liuquan Sun

Count endpoints are common in clinical trials, particularly for recurrent events such as hypoglycemia. When interest centers on comparing overall event rates between treatment groups, negative binomial (NB) regression is widely used because…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Jiren Sun , Linda Amoafo , Yongming Qu