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Most previous studies of the causal relationship between malaria and stunting have been studies where potential confounders are controlled via regression-based methods, but these studies may have been biased by unobserved confounders.…

Applications · Statistics 2015-11-11 Hyunseung Kang , Benno Kreuels , Jürgen May , Dylan S. Small

We consider stochastic optimization problems which use observed data to estimate essential characteristics of the random quantities involved. Sample average approximation (SAA) or empirical (plug-in) estimation are very popular ways to use…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-16 Darinka Dentcheva , Yang Lin

A novel estimation approach for a general class of semi-parametric multivariate time series models is introduced where the conditional mean is modeled through parametric functions. The focus of the estimation is the conditional mean…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-21 Mirko Armillotta

We demonstrate a comprehensive semiparametric approach to causal mediation analysis, addressing the complexities inherent in settings with longitudinal and continuous treatments, confounders, and mediators. Our methodology utilizes a…

The same intervention can produce different effects in different sites. Transport mediation estimators can estimate the extent to which such differences can be explained by differences in compositional factors and the mechanisms by which…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz

I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units' outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used reduced-form linear-in-means…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-21 Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare

Symbolic data analysis (SDA) aggregates large individual-level datasets into a small number of distributional summaries, such as random rectangles or random histograms. The inference is carried out using these summaries in place of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Yu Yang , Matias Quiroz , Boris Beranger , Robert Kohn , Scott A. Sisson

Mediation analysis seeks to understand the mechanism by which a treatment affects an outcome. Count or zero-inflated count outcome are common in many studies in which mediation analysis is of interest. For example, in dental studies,…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-12 Zijian Guo , Dylan S. Small , Stuart A. Gansky , Jing Cheng

This paper proposes semi-instrumental variables (semi-IVs) as an alternative to instrumental variables (IVs) to identify the causal effect of a binary (or discrete) endogenous treatment. A semi-IV is a less restrictive form of instrument:…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-23 Christophe Bruneel-Zupanc

Double blind randomized controlled trials are traditionally seen as the gold standard for causal inferences as the difference-in-means estimator is an unbiased estimator of the average treatment effect in the experiment. The fact that this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-25 Per Johansson , Mattias Nordin

Mediation analysis is a powerful tool for studying causal pathways between exposure, mediator, and outcome variables of interest. While classical mediation analysis using observational data often requires strong and sometimes unrealistic…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-20 Rita Qiuran Lyu , Chong Wu , Xinwei Ma , Jingshen Wang

Instrumental variable (IV) strategies are widely used in political science to establish causal relationships. However, the identifying assumptions required by an IV design are demanding, and it remains challenging for researchers to assess…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-08 Apoorva Lal , Mac Lockhart , Yiqing Xu , Ziwen Zu

Recently, many machine learning and statistical models such as non-linear regressions, the Single Index, Multi-index, Varying Coefficient Index Models and Two-layer Neural Networks can be reduced to or be seen as a special case of a new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-20 Di Wang , Xiangyu Guo , Chaowen Guan , Shi Li , Jinhui Xu

We present a comprehensive framework for applying rigorous statistical techniques from econometrics to analyze and improve machine learning systems. We introduce key statistical methods such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-03 Michaël Soumm

We address parameter estimation in second-order stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which are prevalent in physics, biology, and ecology. The second-order SDE is converted to a first-order system by introducing an auxiliary velocity…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-17 Predrag Pilipovic , Adeline Samson , Susanne Ditlevsen

Causal mediation analysis aims at disentangling a treatment effect into an indirect mechanism operating through an intermediate outcome or mediator, as well as the direct effect of the treatment on the outcome of interest. However, the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-05-05 Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

In the setting of multi-armed trials, adaptive designs are a popular way to increase estimation efficiency, identify optimal treatments, or maximize rewards to individuals. Recent work has considered the case of estimating the effects of K…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Evan T. R. Rosenman , Kristen B. Hunter

Partial least squares, as a dimension reduction method, has become increasingly important for its ability to deal with problems with a large number of variables. Since noisy variables may weaken the performance of the model, the sparse…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-08 Weijuan Liang , Shuangge Ma , Qingzhao Zhang , Tingyu Zhu

To estimate direct and indirect effects of an exposure on an outcome from observed data strong assumptions about unconfoundedness are required. Since these assumptions cannot be tested using the observed data, a mediation analysis should…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-29 Anita Lindmark , Xavier de Luna , Marie Eriksson

A popular technique for selecting and tuning machine learning estimators is cross-validation. Cross-validation evaluates overall model fit, usually in terms of predictive accuracy. In causal inference, the optimal choice of estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-07 Dominik Rothenhäusler