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Mixture models provide a flexible representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. From the Bayesian point of view, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods provide a way to draw inferences from these models. In particular,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-06 Carolina Valani Cavalcante , Kelly Cristina Mota Gonçalves

We present a general method to derive the metastable behavior of weakly mixing Markov chains. This approach is based on properties of the resolvent equations and can be applied to metastable dynamics which do not satisfy the mixing…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-21 Claudio Landim , Diego Marcondes , Insuk Seo

We review the theory of martingales as applied to stochastic thermodynamics and stochastic processes in physics more generally.

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-08-20 Édgar Roldán , Izaak Neri , Raphael Chetrite , Shamik Gupta , Simone Pigolotti , Frank Jülicher , Ken Sekimoto

Markov chains in random environments (MCREs) have recently attracted renewed interest, as these processes naturally arise in many applications, such as econometrics and machine learning. Although specific asymptotic results, such as the law…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-22 Attila Lovas , Lionel Truquet

We investigate the conditional distributions of two Banach space valued, jointly Gaussian random variables. In particular, we show that these conditional distributions are again Gaussian and that their means and covariances can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-25 Ingo Steinwart

A stochastic algorithm is proposed, finding the set of generalized means associated to a probability measure on a compact Riemannian manifold M and a continuous cost function on the product of M by itself. Generalized means include p-means…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-28 Marc Arnaudon , Laurent Miclo

We give a new characterization for mutual absolute continuity of probability measures on a filtered space. For this, we introduce a martingale limit $M$ that measures the similarity between the tails of the probability measures restricted…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-28 Matthias Georg Mayer

We study existence of probability measure valued jump-diffusions described by martingale problems. We develop a simple device that allows us to embed Wasserstein spaces and other similar spaces of probability measures into locally compact…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-03 Martin Larsson , Sara Svaluto-Ferro

We consider \textit{additive spaces}, consisting of two intervals of unit length or two general probability measures on ${\mathbb R}^1$, positioned on the axes in ${\mathbb R}^2$, with a natural additive measure $\rho$. We study the…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2020-05-29 Chun-Kit Lai , Bochen Liu , Hal Prince

In this article we survey properties of mixed Poisson distributions and probabilistic aspects of the Stirling transform: given a non-negative random variable $X$ with moment sequence $(\mu_s)_{s\in\mathbb{N}}$ we determine a discrete random…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2014-09-12 Markus Kuba , Alois Panholzer

We consider some versions and generalizations of an approach to the expansion of iterated Ito stochastic integrals of arbitrary multiplicity $k$ $(k\in\mathbb{N})$ based on generalized multiple Fourier series. Expansions of iterated…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Dmitriy F. Kuznetsov

Over the past decades, linear mixed models have attracted considerable attention in various fields of applied statistics. They are popular whenever clustered, hierarchical or longitudinal data are investigated. Nonetheless, statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-20 Katarzyna Reluga , María José Lombardía , Stefan Andreas Sperlich

A geometric reformulation of the martingale problem associated with a set of diffusion processes is proposed. This formulation, based on second order geometry and Ito integration on manifolds, allows us to give a natural and effective…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-04 Francesco C. De Vecchi , Paola Morando , Stefania Ugolini

(This is the third version of a working paper.) We develop a family of self-normalized concentration inequalities for marginal mean under martingale-difference structure and $\phi/\tilde{\phi}$-mixing conditions, where the latter includes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-17 Zihao Yuan

In Chib (1995), a method for approximating marginal densities in a Bayesian setting is proposed, with one proeminent application being the estimation of the number of components in a normal mixture. As pointed out in Neal (1999) and…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-12-18 J. -M. Marin , Christian Robert

We introduce a new concept of dissipative measure-valued martingale solutions to the stochastic compressible Euler equations. These solutions are weak in the probabilistic sense i.e., the probability space and the driving Wiener process are…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Martina Hofmanova , Ujjwal Koley , Utsab Sarkar

In observational studies, the assumption of sufficient overlap (positivity) is fundamental for the identification and estimation of causal effects. Failing to account for this assumption yields inaccurate and potentially infeasible…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-07 Jaehyuk Jang , Suehyun Kim , Kwonsang Lee

Complex high-dimensional co-occurrence data are increasingly popular from a complex system of interacting physical, biological and social processes in discretely indexed modifiable areal units or continuously indexed locations of a study…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-19 Jian-Yong Wang , Han Yu

We introduce polynomial processes in the sense of [8] in the context of stochastic portfolio theory to model simultaneously companies' market capitalizations and the corresponding market weights. These models substantially extend volatility…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-12 Christa Cuchiero

We give the distribution functions, the expected values, and the moments of linear combinations of lattice polynomials from the uniform distribution. Linear combinations of lattice polynomials, which include weighted sums, linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-05-05 Jean-Luc Marichal , Ivan Kojadinovic