Related papers: General Price Bounds for Guaranteed Annuity Option…
In this paper, we describe a general method for constructing the posterior distribution of an option price. Our framework takes as inputs the prior distributions of the parameters of the stochastic process followed by the underlying, as…
Variable annuities (VA) are popular insurance products. VAs provides the insured with a guaranteed accumulation rate on their premium at maturity. In addition, the insured may receive extra benefit if returns of underlying funds are high…
We present a generative approach to price options and extract risk-neutral densities from the market. Specifically, we model the underlying log-returns on the time-to-maturity continuum as a generative model from standard normal. Neural…
Recent studies have identified long-range dependence as a key feature in the dynamics of both mortality and interest rates. Building on this insight, we develop a novel bi-variate stochastic framework based on mixed fractional Brownian…
The aim of this paper is to present a simple stochastic model that accounts for the effects of a long-memory in volatility on option pricing. The starting point is the stochastic Black-Scholes equation involving volatility with long-range…
One of the risks derived from selling long term policies that any insurance company has, arises from interest rates. In this paper we consider a general class of stochastic volatility models written in forward variance form. We also deal…
We propose an artificial market model based on deterministic agents. The agents modify their ask/bid price depending on past price changes. The temporal development of market price fluctuations is calculated numerically. A probability…
This paper proposes a paradigm shift in the valuation of long term annuities, away from classical no-arbitrage valuation towards valuation under the real world probability measure. Furthermore, we apply this valuation method to two examples…
We reconsider the problem of option pricing using historical probability distributions. We first discuss how the risk-minimisation scheme proposed recently is an adequate starting point under the realistic assumption that price increments…
This paper provides a methodology for fast and accurate pricing of the long-dated contracts that arise as the building blocks of insurance and pension fund agreements. It applies the recursive marginal quantization (RMQ) and joint recursive…
We present an adaptive approach for valuing the European call option on assets with stochastic volatility. The essential feature of the method is a reduction of uncertainty in latent volatility due to a Bayesian learning procedure. Starting…
Spot option prices, forwards and options on forwards relevant for the commodity markets are computed when the underlying process S is modelled as an exponential of a process {\xi} with memory as e.g. a L\'evy semi-stationary process.…
In this paper we consider the pricing of variable annuities (VAs) with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits. We consider two pricing approaches, the classical risk-neutral approach and the benchmark approach, and we examine the associated…
The determination of acceptability prices of contingent claims requires the choice of a stochastic model for the underlying asset price dynamics. Given this model, optimal bid and ask prices can be found by stochastic optimization. However,…
In this paper, we present a probabilistic adaptation of an Assume/Guarantee contract formalism. For the sake of generality, we assume that the extended state machines used in the contracts and implementations define sets of runs on a given…
After a quick review of superpositions of OU (supOU) processes, integrated sup\-OU processes and the supOU stochastic volatility model we estimate these processes by using the generalized method of moments (GMM). We show that the GMM…
High frequency financial data is burdened by a level of randomness that is unavoidable and obfuscates the task of modelling. This idea is reflected in the intraday evolution of limit orders book data for many financial assets and suggests…
We propose a very efficient method for pricing various types of lookback options under Markov models. We utilize the model-free representations of lookback option prices as integrals of first passage probabilities. We combine efficient…
In the first part of this thesis, we focus on American options in the Heston model. We first give an analytical characterization of the value function of an American option as the unique solution of the associated (degenerate) parabolic…
In this work we present an analytical model, based on the path-integral formalism of Statistical Mechanics, for pricing options using first-passage time problems involving both fixed and deterministically moving absorbing barriers under…