Related papers: Dynamic Shrinkage Processes
We introduce a new approach for decoupling trends (drift) and changepoints (shifts) in time series. Our locally adaptive model-based approach for robustly decoupling combines Bayesian trend filtering and machine learning based…
We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for…
We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for variable selection using Gaussian process regression, which is crucial for enhancing interpretability and model regularization. Our method employs nearest neighbor Gaussian processes, serving as…
In this paper we consider a Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical systems from ergodic observations. The proposed Bayesian procedure is based on the Gibbs posterior, a decision theoretic generalization of standard…
In a modern observational study based on healthcare databases, the number of observations and of predictors typically range in the order of $10^5$ ~ $10^6$ and of $10^4$ ~ $10^5$. Despite the large sample size, data rarely provide…
We use Levy processes to generate joint prior distributions, and therefore penalty functions, for a location parameter as p grows large. This generalizes the class of local-global shrinkage rules based on scale mixtures of normals,…
We consider the problem of model selection when grouping structure is inherent within the regressors. Using a Bayesian approach, we model the mean vector by a one-group global-local shrinkage prior belonging to a broad class of such priors…
Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a powerful tool for nonparametric regression, but its application in a fully Bayesian fashion in high-dimensional settings is hindered by two primary challenges: the difficulty of variable selection and…
Bounded continuous responses -- such as proportions -- arise frequently in diverse scientific fields including climatology, biostatistics, and finance. Beta regression is a widely adopted framework for modeling such data, due to the…
We use rescaled Gaussian processes as prior models for functional parameters in nonparametric statistical models. We show how the rate of contraction of the posterior distributions depends on the scaling factor. In particular, we exhibit…
Gibbs samplers are popular algorithms to approximate posterior distributions arising from Bayesian hierarchical models. Despite their popularity and good empirical performances, however, there are still relatively few quantitative results…
In recent years, shrinkage priors have received much attention in high-dimensional data analysis from a Bayesian perspective. Compared with widely used spike-and-slab priors, shrinkage priors have better computational efficiency. But the…
We introduce a novel adaptive Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) methodology for efficient construction of surrogate models for Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward model evaluations. An adaptive design strategy focuses on…
We consider the problem of inference in discrete probabilistic models, that is, distributions over subsets of a finite ground set. These encompass a range of well-known models in machine learning, such as determinantal point processes and…
We explore various Bayesian approaches to estimate partial Gaussian graphical models. Our hierarchical structures enable to deal with single-output as well as multiple-output linear regressions, in small or high dimension, enforcing either…
Practical Bayesian learning often requires (1) online inference, (2) dynamic models, and (3) ensembling over multiple different models. Recent advances have shown how to use random feature approximations to achieve scalable, online…
The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…
This paper proposes a variational Bayes algorithm for computationally efficient posterior and predictive inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) models. Within this context we specify a new dynamic variable/model selection strategy for…
This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…
Functional mixed models are widely useful for regression analysis with dependent functional data, including longitudinal functional data with scalar predictors. However, existing algorithms for Bayesian inference with these models only…