Related papers: Threshold Selection for Multivariate Heavy-Tailed …
We extend the construction principle of multivariate phase-type distributions to establish an analytically tractable class of heavy-tailed multivariate random variables whose marginal distributions are of Mittag-Leffler type with arbitrary…
Two key tasks in high-dimensional regularized regression are tuning the regularization strength for accurate predictions and estimating the out-of-sample risk. It is known that the standard approach -- $k$-fold cross-validation -- is…
This paper studies the case of possibly high-dimensional covariates in the regression discontinuity design (RDD) analysis. In particular, we propose estimation and inference methods for the RDD models with covariate selection which perform…
We investigate the relative information content of six measures of dependence between two random variables $X$ and $Y$ for large or extreme events for several models of interest for financial time series. The six measures of dependence are…
We study a scalable alternative to robust gradient descent (RGD) techniques that can be used when the gradients can be heavy-tailed, though this will be unknown to the learner. The core technique is simple: instead of trying to robustly…
We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance…
We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…
High-dimensional covariance estimation is notoriously sensitive to outliers. While statistically optimal estimators exist for general heavy-tailed distributions, they often rely on computationally expensive techniques like semidefinite…
In this paper, we compare two numerical methods for approximating the probability that the sum of dependent regularly varying random variables exceeds a high threshold under Archimedean copula models. The first method is based on…
Determining the causes of extreme events is a fundamental question in many scientific fields. An important aspect when modelling multivariate extremes is the tail dependence. In application, the extreme dependence structure may…
A multivariate, stationary time series is said to be jointly regularly varying if all its finite-dimensional distributions are multivariate regularly varying. This property is shown to be equivalent to weak convergence of the conditional…
Assessing dependence within co-movements of financial instruments has been of much interest in risk management. Typically, indices of tail dependence are used to quantify the strength of such dependence, although many of the indices…
This paper studies model selection consistency for high dimensional sparse regression when data exhibits both cross-sectional and serial dependency. Most commonly-used model selection methods fail to consistently recover the true model when…
This paper considers the problem of robustly estimating the parameters of a heavy-tailed multivariate distribution when the covariance matrix is known to have the structure of a low-rank matrix plus a diagonal matrix as considered in factor…
Distance multivariance is a multivariate dependence measure, which can detect dependencies between an arbitrary number of random vectors each of which can have a distinct dimension. Here we discuss several new aspects, present a concise…
In this paper we are concerned with the analysis of heavy-tailed data when a portion of the extreme values is unavailable. This research was motivated by an analysis of the degree distributions in a large social network. The degree…
The goal of this paper is two-fold: 1. We review classical and recent measures of serial extremal dependence in a strictly stationary time series as well as their estimation. 2. We discuss recent concepts of heavy-tailed time series,…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of widely used tests for evaluating and comparing predictive accuracy when forecast errors exhibit heavy tails. In particular, when loss differentials have infinite variance, the Diebold-Mariano test…
The multidimensional distributions with heavy tails attracted recently the attention of several papers on Applied Probability. However, the most of the works of the last decades are focused on multivariate regular variation, while the rest…
This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…