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We establish a comprehensive sample path large deviation principle (LDP) for log-processes associated with multivariate time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models. Examples of models for which the new LDP holds include Gaussian models,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-15 Archil Gulisashvili

Bayesian model updating provides a rigorous probabilistic framework for calibrating finite element (FE) models with quantified uncertainties, thereby enhancing damage assessment, response prediction, and performance evaluation of…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-27 Taro Yaoyama , Tatsuya Itoi , Jun Iyama

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM) are powerful state-of-the-art methods used to generate synthetic data from high-dimensional data distributions and are widely used for image, audio, and video generation as well as many more…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 Iskander Azangulov , George Deligiannidis , Judith Rousseau

In this paper, we discuss the non-collapsibility concept and propose a new approach based on Dirichlet process mixtures to estimate the conditional effect of covariates in non-collapsible models. Using synthetic data, we evaluate the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-09 Sepehr Akhavan Masouleh , Babak Shahbaba , Daniel L. Gillen

Selecting important spatial-dependent variables under the nonhomogeneous spatial Poisson process model is an important topic of great current interest. In this paper, we use the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) and Logarithm of the…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-16 Guanyu Hu , Fred Huffer , Ming-Hui Chen

We develop a framework for derivative Gaussian process latent variable models (DGP-LVMs) that can handle multi-dimensional output data using modified derivative covariance functions. The modifications account for complexities in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Soham Mukherjee , Manfred Claassen , Paul-Christian Bürkner

Distributed lag models (DLMs) express the cumulative and delayed dependence between pairs of time-indexed response and explanatory variables. In practical application, users of DLMs examine the estimated influence of a series of lagged…

Applications · Statistics 2018-01-23 Alastair Rushworth

In this work, we propose a novel framework for large-scale Gaussian process (GP) modeling. Contrary to the global, and local approximations proposed in the literature to address the computational bottleneck with exact GP modeling, we employ…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-19 Akhil Vakayil , Roshan Joseph

Many scientific and industrial processes produce data that is best analysed as vectors of relative values, often called compositions or proportions. The Dirichlet distribution is a natural distribution to use for composition or proportion…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-15 Sean van der Merwe

Bayesian models that mix multiple Dirichlet prior parameters, called Multi-Dirichlet priors (MD) in this paper, are gaining popularity. Inferring mixing weights and parameters of mixed prior distributions seems tricky, as sums over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-18 Christoph Carl Kling

We present a method that models the evolution of an unbounded number of time series clusters by switching among an unknown number of regimes with linear dynamics. We develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using a hierarchical Dirichlet…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-09 Adrián Pérez-Herrero , Paulo Félix , Jesús Presedo , Carl Henrik Ek

Multi-task learning leverages shared information among data sets to improve the learning performance of individual tasks. The paper applies this framework for data where each task is a phase-shifted periodic time series. In particular, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-20 Yuyang Wang , Roni Khardon , Pavlos Protopapas

Recent advances in topic models have explored complicated structured distributions to represent topic correlation. For example, the pachinko allocation model (PAM) captures arbitrary, nested, and possibly sparse correlations between topics…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2012-06-26 Wei Li , David Blei , Andrew McCallum

Much work in the study of large deviations for random graph models is focused on the dense regime where the theory of graphons has emerged as a principal tool. These tools do not give a good approach to large deviation problems for random…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-07 Shankar Bhamidi , Amarjit Budhiraja , Paul Dupuis , Ruoyu Wu

This paper proposes a Hilbert space embedding for Dirichlet Process mixture models via a stick-breaking construction of Sethuraman. Although Bayesian nonparametrics offers a powerful approach to construct a prior that avoids the need to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-10-17 Krikamol Muandet

Consider a Dirichlet process mixture model (DPM) with random precision parameter $\alpha$, inducing $K_n$ clusters over $n$ observations through its latent random partition. Our goal is to specify the prior distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Carlo Vicentini , Ian Hyla Jermyn

We study offline change point localization and inference in dynamic multilayer random dot product graphs (D-MRDPGs), where at each time point, a multilayer network is observed with shared node latent positions and time-varying,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Fan Wang , Kyle Ritscher , Yik Lun Kei , Xin Ma , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Gaussian processes (GPs) are ubiquitously used in sciences and engineering as metamodels. Standard GPs, however, can only handle numerical or quantitative variables. In this paper, we introduce latent map Gaussian processes (LMGPs) that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-13 Nicholas Oune , Ramin Bostanabad

Aggregating statistics over geographical regions is important for many applications, such as analyzing income, election results, and disease spread. However, the sensitive nature of this data necessitates strong privacy protections to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-08 Aman Priyanshu , Yash Maurya , Suriya Ganesh , Vy Tran

We study Dirichlet process-based models for sets of predictor-dependent probability distributions, where the domain and predictor space are general Polish spaces. We generalize the definition of dependent Dirichlet processes, originally…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-12 Andres Iturriaga , Carlos A. Sing Long , Alejandro Jara