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Augmenting a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with external data may increase power at the risk of introducing bias. To select and analyze the experiment (RCT alone or combined with external data) with the optimal bias-variance tradeoff,…

Estimating treatment effects (TE) from observational data is a critical yet complex task in many fields, from healthcare and economics to public policy. While recent advances in machine learning and causal inference have produced powerful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Jeroen Berrevoets , Julianna Piskorz , Robert Davis , Harry Amad , Jim Weatherall , Mihaela van der Schaar

Over the past years, many applications aim to assess the causal effect of treatments assigned at the community level, while data are still collected at the individual level among individuals of the community. In many cases, one wants to…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-16 Chi Zhang , Jennifer Ahern , Mark J. van der Laan , Oleg Sofrygin

Administrative data, or non-probability sample data, are increasingly being used to obtain official statistics due to their many benefits over survey methods. In particular, they are less costly, provide a larger sample size, and are not…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-30 Asma Bahamyirou , Mireille E. Schnitzer

Propensity score matching (PSM) is a pseudo-experimental method that uses statistical techniques to construct an artificial control group by matching each treated unit with one or more untreated units of similar characteristics. To date,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-27 Yukun Liu , Jing Qin

In observational study, the propensity score has the central role to estimate causal effects. Since the propensity score is usually unknown, estimating by appropriate procedures is an indispensable step. A point to note that a causal effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-19 Shunichiro Orihara

We propose Deep Longitudinal Targeted Minimum Loss-based Estimation (Deep LTMLE), a novel approach to estimate the counterfactual mean of outcome under dynamic treatment policies in longitudinal problem settings. Our approach utilizes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-09 Toru Shirakawa , Yi Li , Yulun Wu , Sky Qiu , Yuxuan Li , Mingduo Zhao , Hiroyasu Iso , Mark van der Laan

Sampling strategies have been widely applied in many recommendation systems to accelerate model learning from implicit feedback data. A typical strategy is to draw negative instances with uniform distribution, which however will severely…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Jiawei Chen , Chengquan Jiang , Can Wang , Sheng Zhou , Yan Feng , Chun Chen , Martin Ester , Xiangnan He

This paper considers errors-in-variables models in a high-dimensional setting where the number of covariates can be much larger than the sample size, and there are only a small number of non-zero covariates. The presence of measurement…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-03 Linh Nghiem , Cornelis Potgieter

We propose a novel method for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects based on the fused lasso. By first ordering samples based on the propensity or prognostic score, we match units from the treatment and control groups. We then run the…

Collaboration between different data centers is often challenged by heterogeneity across sites. To account for the heterogeneity, the state-of-the-art method is to re-weight the covariate distributions in each site to match the distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-25 Tianyu Guo , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan

We consider the estimation of the average treatment effect in the treated as a function of baseline covariates, where there is a valid (conditional) instrument. We describe two doubly robust (DR) estimators: a locally efficient g-estimator,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-11 Karla DiazOrdaz , Rhian Daniel , Noemi Kreif

Quantifying the heterogeneity of treatment effect is important for understanding how a commercial product or medical treatment affects different population subgroups. While much of treatment effect heterogeneity analysis focuses on the…

In certain privacy-sensitive scenarios within fields such as clinical trial simulations, federated learning, and distributed learning, researchers often face the challenge of estimating correlations between variables without access to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Longwen Shang , Min Tsao , Xuekui Zhang

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

Estimating a causal query from observational data is an essential task in the analysis of biomolecular networks. Estimation takes as input a network topology, a query estimation method, and observational measurements on the network…

Statistical inference of multiple parameters often involves a preliminary parameter selection stage. The selection stage has an impact on subsequent estimation, for example by introducing a selection bias. The post-selection maximum…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-04-22 Nadav Harel , Tirza Routtenberg

We introduce a new preference-based framework for conditional treatment effect estimation and policy learning, built on the Conditional Preference-based Treatment Effect (CPTE). CPTE requires only that outcomes be ranked under a preference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-04 Dovid Parnas , Mathieu Even , Julie Josse , Uri Shalit

Continuous-time reinforcement learning (CTRL) provides a natural framework for sequential decision-making in dynamic environments where interactions evolve continuously over time. While CTRL has shown growing empirical success, its ability…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Runze Zhao , Yue Yu , Ruhan Wang , Chunfeng Huang , Dongruo Zhou

Objectives: Highly flexible nonparametric estimators have gained popularity in causal inference and epidemiology. Popular examples of such estimators include targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLE) and double machine learning (DML).…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Hongxiang Qiu