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The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-12 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani

In many application areas, data are collected on a categorical response and high-dimensional categorical predictors, with the goals being to build a parsimonious model for classification while doing inferences on the important predictors.…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-22 Yun Yang , David B. Dunson

Deep feedforward neural networks (DFNNs) are a powerful tool for functional approximation. We describe flexible versions of generalized linear and generalized linear mixed models incorporating basis functions formed by a DFNN. The…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-28 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nghia Nguyen , David Nott , Robert Kohn

This paper presents a novel variational inference framework for deriving a family of Bayesian sparse Gaussian process regression (SGPR) models whose approximations are variationally optimal with respect to the full-rank GPR model enriched…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-25 Haibin Yu , Trong Nghia Hoang , Kian Hsiang Low , Patrick Jaillet

Modern methods for Bayesian regression beyond the Gaussian response setting are often computationally impractical or inaccurate in high dimensions. In fact, as discussed in recent literature, bypassing such a trade-off is still an open…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-14 Augusto Fasano , Daniele Durante , Giacomo Zanella

Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are well-established tools for probabilistic exploration of dependence structures using precision matrices. We develop a Bayesian method to incorporate covariate information in this GGMs setup in a nonlinear…

A simple and efficient adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, called the Metropolized Adaptive Subspace (MAdaSub) algorithm, is proposed for sampling from high-dimensional posterior model distributions in Bayesian variable…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-04 Christian Staerk , Maria Kateri , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Doubly intractable distributions arise in many settings, for example in Markov models for point processes and exponential random graph models for networks. Bayesian inference for these models is challenging because they involve intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-03 Jaewoo Park , Murali Haran

Bayesian design of experiments and sample size calculations usually rely on complex Monte Carlo simulations in practice. Obtaining bounds on Bayesian notions of the false-positive rate and power therefore often lack closed-form or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Riko Kelter , Samuel Pawel

In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian solution for nonlinear regression in complex fields. Previous solutions for kernels methods usually assume a complexification approach, where the real-valued kernel is replaced by a complex-valued…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-02 Rafael Boloix-Tortosa , Eva Arias-de-Reyna , F. Javier Payan-Somet , Juan J. Murillo-Fuentes

Matrix factorization is a very common machine learning technique in recommender systems. Bayesian Matrix Factorization (BMF) algorithms would be attractive because of their ability to quantify uncertainty in their predictions and avoid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-15 Tom Vander Aa , Xiangju Qin , Paul Blomstedt , Roel Wuyts , Wilfried Verachtert , Samuel Kaski

Researchers increasingly wish to estimate time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions which involve a large number of explanatory variables. Including prior information to mitigate over-parameterization concerns has led to many using Bayesian…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-02-25 Florian Huber , Gary Koop , Michael Pfarrhofer

A well known identifiability issue in factor analytic models is the invariance with respect to orthogonal transformations. This problem burdens the inference under a Bayesian setup, where Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-17 Panagiotis Papastamoulis , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Variable clustering is important for explanatory analysis. However, only few dedicated methods for variable clustering with the Gaussian graphical model have been proposed. Even more severe, small insignificant partial correlations due to…

Applications · Statistics 2018-06-18 Daniel Andrade , Akiko Takeda , Kenji Fukumizu

Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) provides a powerful and flexible framework for performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach extends Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-07 Edoardo Marcelli , Sean O'Hagan , Veronika Rockova

We develop a novel Bayesian method to select important predictors in regression models with multiple responses of diverse types. A sparse Gaussian copula regression model is used to account for the multivariate dependencies between any…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-22 Angelos Alexopoulos , Leonardo Bottolo

Posterior predictive p-values (ppps) have become popular tools for Bayesian model assessment, being general-purpose and easy to use. However, interpretation can be difficult because their distribution is not uniform under the hypothesis…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-01 Sally Paganin , Perry de Valpine

This paper presents a sequential randomized lowrank matrix factorization approach for incrementally predicting values of an unknown function at test points using the Gaussian Processes framework. It is well-known that in the Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-21 Shaunak D. Bopardikar , George S. Eskander Ekladious

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-27 Edwin Fong , Simon Lyddon , Chris Holmes

When working with multimodal Bayesian posterior distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have difficulty moving between modes, and default variational or mode-based approximate inferences will understate posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-19 Yuling Yao , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman