Related papers: Risk Model Based on General Compound Hawkes Proces…
Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are versatile probabilistic tools used to model various real-life phenomena: earthquakes, operations on stock markets, neuronal activity, virus propagation and many others. In this paper, we focus on…
The risk-controlling prediction sets (RCPS) framework is a general tool for transforming the output of any machine learning model to design a predictive rule with rigorous error rate control. The key idea behind this framework is to use…
This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
Important models in insurance, for example the Carm{\'e}r--Lundberg theory and the Sparre Andersen model, essentially rely on the Poisson process. The process is used to model arrival times of insurance claims. This paper extends the…
Attributed event sequences are commonly encountered in practice. A recent research line focuses on incorporating neural networks with the statistical model -- marked point processes, which is the conventional tool for dealing with…
Financial risks trend to spread from one entity to another, ultimately leading to systemic risks. The key to preventing such risks lies in understanding the causal chains behind risk contagion. Despite this, prevailing approaches primarily…
Linear multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a fundamental class of point processes with self-excitation. When estimating parameters for these processes, a difficulty is that the two main error functionals, the log-likelihood and the…
This paper discusses a novel probabilistic approach for the design of robust model predictive control (MPC) laws for discrete-time linear systems affected by parametric uncertainty and additive disturbances. The proposed technique is based…
In this paper we provide an expansion formula for Hawkes processes which involves the addition of jumps at deterministic times to the Hawkes process in the spirit of the well-known integration by parts formula (or more precisely the Mecke…
Overtaking in high-speed autonomous racing demands precise, real-time estimation of collision risk; particularly in wheel-to-wheel scenarios where safety margins are minimal. Existing methods for collision risk estimation either rely on…
This article introduces a nonlinear generalized matrix factor model (GMFM) that allows for mixed-type variables, extending the scope of linear matrix factor models (LMFM) that are so far limited to handling continuous variables. We…
When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…
Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…
The Hawkes process is a model for counting the number of arrivals to a system which exhibits the self-exciting property - that one arrival creates a heightened chance of further arrivals in the near future. The model, and its…
Due to its clustering and self-exciting properties, the Hawkes process has been used extensively in numerous fields ranging from sismology to finance. Since data is often aquired on regular time intervals, we propose a piece-wise constant…
Group-based social dominance hierarchies are of essential interest in animal behavior research. Studies often record aggressive interactions observed over time, and models that can capture such dynamic hierarchy are therefore crucial.…
In this paper, we present a framework for fitting multivariate Hawkes processes for large-scale problems both in the number of events in the observed history $n$ and the number of event types $d$ (i.e. dimensions). The proposed Low-Rank…
In this paper we consider a compound Poisson risk model with regularly varying claim sizes. For this model in [1] an asymptotic formula for the finite time ruin probability is provided when the time is scaled by the mean excess function. In…
This paper introduces a class of generalised linear models (GLMs) driven by latent processes for modelling count, real-valued, binary, and positive continuous time series. Extending earlier latent-process regression frameworks based on…