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Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…
A stochastic approach based on generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) is used to quantify the error in Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) of a spatially-evolving mixing layer flow and its sensitivity to different simulation parameters, viz. the grid…
Ambient noise tomography relies on the assumption that the seismic wavefield is equipartitioned. In practice, ambient noise sources are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, producing biased estimates of the Green's function between…
This paper introduces EQShapelets (EarthQuake Shapelets) a time-series shape-based approach embedded in machine learning to autonomously detect earthquakes. It promises to overcome the challenges in the field of seismology related to…
Regional disaster resilience quantifies the changing nature of physical risks to inform policy instruments ranging from local immediate recovery to international sustainable development. While many existing state-of-practice methods have…
We propose a new version of the ETAS model, which we also analyze theoretically. As for the standard ETAS model, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law as a probability density function for background events' magnitude. Instead, the magnitude…
We develop a Bayesian approach to estimate weight matrices in spatial autoregressive (or spatial lag) models. Datasets in regional economic literature are typically characterized by a limited number of time periods T relative to spatial…
I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…
In this paper, we propose a variationally consistent technique for decreasing the maximum eigenfrequencies of structural dynamics related finite element formulations. Our approach is based on adding a symmetric positive-definite term to the…
This paper develops a simple two-stage variational Bayesian algorithm to estimate panel spatial autoregressive models, where N, the number of cross-sectional units, is much larger than T, the number of time periods without restricting the…
We study a class of weakly identifiable location-scale mixture models for which the maximum likelihood estimates based on $n$ i.i.d. samples are known to have lower accuracy than the classical $n^{- \frac{1}{2}}$ error. We investigate…
We present an adjoint-based optimization method to invert for stress and frictional parameters used in earthquake modeling. The forward problem is linear elastodynamics with nonlinear rate-and-state frictional faults. The misfit functional…
Predicting discrete events in time and space has many scientific applications, such as predicting hazardous earthquakes and outbreaks of infectious diseases. History-dependent spatio-temporal Hawkes processes are often used to…
We apply a linear Bayesian model to seismic tomography, a high-dimensional inverse problem in geophysics. The objective is to estimate the three-dimensional structure of the earth's interior from data measured at its surface. Since this…
The statistics of recurrence times in broad areas have been reported to obey universal scaling laws, both for single homogeneous regions (Corral, 2003) and when averaged over multiple regions (Bak et al.,2002). These unified scaling laws…
Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…
We develop a fast method for optimally designing experiments in the context of statistical seismic source inversion. In particular, we efficiently compute the optimal number and locations of the receivers or seismographs. The seismic source…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
Recently all major weather prediction centres provide forecast ensembles of different weather quantities which are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with various initial conditions and model…
Principled decision making in emergency response management necessitates the use of statistical models that predict the spatial-temporal likelihood of incident occurrence. These statistical models are then used for proactive stationing…