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Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Alexander Lin , Bahareh Tolooshams , Yves Atchadé , Demba Ba

Expectation Propagation is a very popular algorithm for variational inference, but comes with few theoretical guarantees. In this article, we prove that the approximation errors made by EP can be bounded. Our bounds have an asymptotic…

Computation · Statistics 2016-01-12 Guillaume P Dehaene , Simon Barthelmé

Exponential family distributions are highly useful in machine learning since their calculation can be performed efficiently through natural parameters. The exponential family has recently been extended to the t-exponential family, which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-30 Futoshi Futami , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of Gaussian processes (GPs) and are formally equivalent to neural networks with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers. DGPs are nonparametric probabilistic models…

We formulate approximate Bayesian inference in non-conjugate temporal and spatio-temporal Gaussian process models as a simple parameter update rule applied during Kalman smoothing. This viewpoint encompasses most inference schemes,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-14 William J. Wilkinson , Paul E. Chang , Michael Riis Andersen , Arno Solin

This paper presents a new deterministic approximation technique in Bayesian networks. This method, "Expectation Propagation", unifies two previous techniques: assumed-density filtering, an extension of the Kalman filter, and loopy belief…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Thomas P. Minka

While Gaussian probability densities are omnipresent in applied mathematics, Gaussian cumulative probabilities are hard to calculate in any but the univariate case. We study the utility of Expectation Propagation (EP) as an approximate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-02 John P. Cunningham , Philipp Hennig , Simon Lacoste-Julien

McCullagh and Yang (2006) suggest a family of classification algorithms based on Cox processes. We further investigate the log Gaussian variant which has a number of appealing properties. Conditioned on the covariates, the distribution over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-23 Alexander G. de. G Matthews , Zoubin Ghahramani

Binary regression models represent a popular model-based approach for binary classification. In the Bayesian framework, computational challenges in the form of the posterior distribution motivate still-ongoing fruitful research. Here, we…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-06 Augusto Fasano , Niccolò Anceschi , Beatrice Franzolini , Giovanni Rebaudo

We study the problem of downlink channel estimation in multi-user massive multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems. To this end, we consider a Bayesian compressive sensing approach in which the clustered sparse structure of the channel…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Mohammed Rashid , Mort Naraghi-Pour

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-10-01 Yarin Gal , Mark van der Wilk , Carl E. Rasmussen

We propose a novel approach for nonlinear regression using a two-layer neural network (NN) model structure with sparsity-favoring hierarchical priors on the network weights. We present an expectation propagation (EP) approach for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-01-23 Pasi Jylänki , Aapo Nummenmaa , Aki Vehtari

We consider Bayesian inference problems with computationally intensive likelihood functions. We propose a Gaussian process (GP) based method to approximate the joint distribution of the unknown parameters and the data. In particular, we…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-15 Hongqiao Wang , Jinglai Li

Gaussian process classification (GPC) provides a flexible and powerful statistical framework describing joint distributions over function space. Conventional GPCs however suffer from (i) poor scalability for big data due to the full kernel…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-17 Haitao Liu , Yew-Soon Ong , Ziwei Yu , Jianfei Cai , Xiaobo Shen

Practitioners building classifiers often start with a smaller pilot dataset and plan to grow to larger data in the near future. Such projects need a toolkit for extrapolating how much classifier accuracy may improve from a 2x, 10x, or 50x…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Ethan Harvey , Wansu Chen , David M. Kent , Michael C. Hughes

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-24 Arthur Leroy , Pierre Latouche , Benjamin Guedj , Servane Gey

Gaussian processes (GP) provide a prior over functions and allow finding complex regularities in data. Gaussian processes are successfully used for classification/regression problems and dimensionality reduction. In this work we consider…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-21 Pavel Izmailov , Dmitry Kropotov

We propose a new scalable multi-class Gaussian process classification approach building on a novel modified softmax likelihood function. The new likelihood has two benefits: it leads to well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and allows for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-24 Théo Galy-Fajou , Florian Wenzel , Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-02 Lulu Kang , Yuanxing Cheng , Yiwei Wang , Chun Liu

Rich and complex time-series data, such as those generated from engineering systems, financial markets, videos or neural recordings, are now a common feature of modern data analysis. Explaining the phenomena underlying these diverse data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-18 Marc Peter Deisenroth , Shakir Mohamed