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New algorithms for construction of asymptotic expansions for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces are presented. These algorithms are based on a special technique of sequential…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-16 Dmitrii Silvestrov , Sergei Silvestrov

Continuous Time Markov Chain (CMTC) is widely used to describe and analyze systems in several knowledge areas. Steady state availability is one important analysis that can be made through Markov chain formalism that allows researchers…

Performance · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Eduardo M. Vasconcelos

We introduce a framework to approximate a Markov Decision Process that stands on two pillars: state aggregation -- as the algorithmic infrastructure; and central-limit-theorem-type approximations -- as the mathematical underpinning of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-13 Amy B. Z. Zhang , Itai Gurvich

We consider the problem of controlling a Markov decision process (MDP) with a large state space, so as to minimize average cost. Since it is intractable to compete with the optimal policy for large scale problems, we pursue the more modest…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-02-28 Yasin Abbasi-Yadkori , Peter L. Bartlett , Alan Malek

We consider a constrained Markov Decision Problem (CMDP) where the goal of an agent is to maximize the expected discounted sum of rewards over an infinite horizon while ensuring that the expected discounted sum of costs exceeds a certain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Washim Uddin Mondal , Vaneet Aggarwal

Stochastic domains often involve risk-averse decision makers. While recent work has focused on how to model risk in Markov decision processes using risk measures, it has not addressed the problem of solving large risk-averse formulations.…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-10-19 Marek Petrik , Dharmashankar Subramanian

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) is a rich mathematical framework that embraces a large class of complex sequential decision-making problems under uncertainty with limited observations. However, the complexity of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-29 Mingyu Park , Jaeuk Shin , Insoon Yang

Approximate dynamic programming is a popular method for solving large Markov decision processes. This paper describes a new class of approximate dynamic programming (ADP) methods- distributionally robust ADP-that address the curse of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-05-22 Marek Petrik

The ability to synthesize realistic data in a parametrizable way is valuable for a number of reasons, including privacy, missing data imputation, and evaluating the performance of statistical and computational methods. When the underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Zuofu Huang , Julian Wolfson , Jayne A. Fulkerson , Ryan Demmer , Helen N. Chen

In this paper we propose an output-feedback Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm for linear discrete-time systems affected by a possibly unbounded additive noise and subject to probabilistic constraints. In case the noise distribution…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-08-29 Marcello Farina , Luca Giulioni , Lalo Magni , Riccardo Scattolini

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a classical model for decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Often they are viewed as state transformers with planning objectives defined with respect to paths over MDP states. An increasingly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-05-08 S. Akshay , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Tobias Meggendorfer , Đorđe Žikelić

This paper extends to Continuous-Time Jump Markov Decision Processes (CTJMDP) the classic result for Markov Decision Processes stating that, for a given initial state distribution, for every policy there is a (randomized) Markov policy,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-05-18 Eugene A. Feinberg , Manasa Mandava , Albert N. Shiryaev

This paper studies a large number of homogeneous Markov decision processes where the transition probabilities and costs are coupled in the empirical distribution of states (also called mean-field). The state of each process is not known to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-03 Jalal Arabneydi , Amir G. Aghdam

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is the first theory for decision-making under uncertainty that combines full theoretical soundness and empirically realistic features [P.P. Wakker - Prospect theory: For risk and ambiguity, Page 2]. While…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Thomas Brihaye , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Stefanie Mohr , Maximilian Weininger

Markov automata combine non-determinism, probabilistic branching, and exponentially distributed delays. This compositional variant of continuous-time Markov decision processes is used in reliability engineering, performance evaluation and…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-05-11 Tim Quatmann , Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen

In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…

Computation · Statistics 2012-01-19 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

In this paper, we give a new approximate dynamic programming (ADP) method to solve large-scale Markov decision programming (MDP) problem. In comparison with many classic ADP methods which have large number of constraints, we formulate an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-15 Di Zhang

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yaxian Xu

Calculating optimal policies is known to be computationally difficult for Markov decision processes (MDPs) with Borel state and action spaces. This paper studies finite-state approximations of discrete time Markov decision processes with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-23 Naci Saldi , Serdar Yüksel , Tamás Linder

We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Thom Badings , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Ufuk Topcu , Nils Jansen