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Causal effect estimation under networked interference is an important but challenging problem. Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, while previous semiparametric methods, e.g., leveraging neural networks to fit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Zeqin Yang , Jie Qiao , Yuguang Yan , Zijian Li , Zhifeng Hao

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso

This paper develops a framework for identification, estimation, and inference on the causal mechanisms driving endogenous social network formation. Identification is challenging because of unobserved confounders and reverse causality;…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Maximilian Kasy , Elizabeth Linos , Sanaz Mobasseri

Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-27 Sadegh Shirani , Mohsen Bayati

We propose a new attribution method for neural networks developed using first principles of causality (to the best of our knowledge, the first such). The neural network architecture is viewed as a Structural Causal Model, and a methodology…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-04 Aditya Chattopadhyay , Piyushi Manupriya , Anirban Sarkar , Vineeth N Balasubramanian

This tutorial provides a concise introduction to modern causal modeling by integrating potential outcomes and graphical methods. We motivate causal questions such as counterfactual reasoning under interventions and define binary treatments…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Gauranga Kumar Baishya

Undertaking causal inference with observational data is incredibly useful across a wide range of tasks including the development of medical treatments, advertisements and marketing, and policy making. There are two significant challenges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-19 Matthew James Vowels , Necati Cihan Camgoz , Richard Bowden

The ICH E9(R1) Addendum (International Council for Harmonization 2019) suggests treatment-policy as one of several strategies for addressing intercurrent events such as treatment withdrawal when defining an estimand. This strategy requires…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-28 Suzie Cro , James H Roger , James R Carpenter

This review systematizes the emerging literature for causal inference using deep neural networks under the potential outcomes framework. It provides an intuitive introduction on how deep learning can be used to estimate/predict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-30 Bernard Koch , Tim Sainburg , Pablo Geraldo , Song Jiang , Yizhou Sun , Jacob Gates Foster

A new modeling framework for bipartite social networks arising from a sequence of partially time-ordered relational events is proposed. We directly model the joint distribution of the binary variables indicating if each single actor is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-23 Francesco Bartolucci , Antonietta Mira , Stefano Peluso

Randomized experiments have become a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in contexts ranging from online platforms to public health. However, in experimental settings with network interference, a unit's treatment can influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Sadegh Shirani , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Ruoxuan Xiong , Mohsen Bayati

Counterfactual thinking describes a psychological phenomenon that people re-infer the possible results with different solutions about things that have already happened. It helps people to gain more experience from mistakes and thus to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-19 Yue Wang , Yao Wan , Chenwei Zhang , Lixin Cui , Lu Bai , Philip S. Yu

Deterministic neural nets have been shown to learn effective predictors on a wide range of machine learning problems. However, as the standard approach is to train the network to minimize a prediction loss, the resultant model remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-02 Murat Sensoy , Lance Kaplan , Melih Kandemir

We present a method for neural network interpretability by combining feature attribution with counterfactual explanations to generate attribution maps that highlight the most discriminative features between pairs of classes. We show that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-29 Nils Eckstein , Alexander S. Bates , Gregory S. X. E. Jefferis , Jan Funke

How do we learn from biased data? Historical datasets often reflect historical prejudices; sensitive or protected attributes may affect the observed treatments and outcomes. Classification algorithms tasked with predicting outcomes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 David Madras , Elliot Creager , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

Offline data are both valuable and practical resources for teaching robots complex behaviors. Ideally, learning agents should not be constrained by the scarcity of available demonstrations, but rather generalize beyond the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-13 Núria Armengol Urpí , Marco Bagatella , Marin Vlastelica , Georg Martius

Causal inference has traditionally focused on interventions at the unit level. In many applications, however, the central question concerns the causal effects of connections between units, such as transportation links, social relationships,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-13 Shuli Chen , Jie Hu , Zhichao Jiang

Interpretability research takes counterfactual theories of causality for granted. Most causal methods rely on counterfactual interventions to inputs or the activations of particular model components, followed by observations of the change…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Aaron Mueller

Predicting potential outcomes of interventions from observational data is crucial for decision-making in medicine, but the task is challenging due to the fundamental problem of causal inference. Existing methods are largely limited to point…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Yuchen Ma , Valentyn Melnychuk , Jonas Schweisthal , Stefan Feuerriegel

Deep learning systems are known to exhibit implicit regularization (alt. implicit bias), favoring simple solutions instead of merely minimizing the loss function. In some cases, we can analytically derive the implicit regularization --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Joseph H. Rudoler , Kevin Tan , Giles Hooker , Konrad P. Kording