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When propagating uncertainty in the data of differential equations, the probability laws describing the uncertainty are typically themselves subject to uncertainty. We present a sensitivity analysis of uncertainty propagation for…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-01 Oliver G. Ernst , Alois Pichler , Björn Sprungk

This paper is focused on the statistical analysis of data consisting of a collection of multiple series of probability measures that are indexed by distinct time instants and supported over a bounded interval of the real line. By modeling…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Yiye Jiang , Jérémie Bigot

We study the problem of exponential mixing and large deviations for discrete-time Markov processes associated with a class of random dynamical systems. Under some dissipativity and regularisation hypotheses for the underlying deterministic…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2014-10-24 Vojkan Jaksic , Vahagn Nersesyan , Claude-Alain Pillet , Armen Shirikyan

We derive a multidimensional Stein's method for asymptotic independence in the case of a general target $\mu$ with a density, being invariant measure of a diffusion process. It allows us to give a general bound in Wasserstein distance…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Ciprian A. Tudor , Jérémy Zurcher

In this paper, we establish moment and Bernstein-type inequalities for additive functionals of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. These inequalities extend the corresponding inequalities for independent random variables. Our conditions…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Sergey Samsonov

In this paper, we consider random walks in Dirichlet random environment (RWDE) on $\mathbb{Z}^2$. We prove that, if the RWDE is recurrent (which is strongly conjectured when the weights are symmetric), then there does not exist any…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Adrien Perrel , Christophe Sabot

A fundamental insight in the theory of diffusive random walks is that the mean length of trajectories traversing a finite open system is independent of the details of the diffusion process. Instead, the mean trajectory length depends only…

Von Renesse and the author (Ann. Prob. '09) developed a second order calculus on the Wasserstein space P([0,1]) of probability measures on the unit interval. The basic objects of interest had been Dirichlet form, semigroup and continuous…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-05-20 Karl-Theodor Sturm

In this paper we consider the field of local times of a discrete-time Markov chain on a general state space, and obtain uniform (in time) upper bounds on the total variation distance between this field and the one of a sequence of $n$…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-25 Diego F. de Bernardini , Christophe Gallesco , Serguei Popov

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-16 Paul Doukhan , Michael H. Neumann , Lionel Truquet

Under the assumption that sequences of graphs equipped with resistances, associated measures, walks and local times converge in a suitable Gromov-Hausdorff topology, we establish asymptotic bounds on the distribution of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-30 George Andriopoulos

The evolution of a quantum system undergoing repeated indirect measurements naturally leads to a Markov chain on the set of states which is called a quantum trajectory. In this paper we consider a specific model of such a quantum trajectory…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-10-22 Tristan Benoist , Laurent Bruneau , Clément Pellegrini

We establish sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the existence and exponential ergodicity of the Q-process, the process…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Aurélien Velleret

We study dynamical systems acting on the path space of a stationary (non-simple) Bratteli diagram. For such systems we explicitly describe all ergodic probability measures invariant with respect to the tail equivalence relation (or the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2009-04-02 S. Bezuglyi , J. Kwiatkowski , K. Medynets , B. Solomyak

We study the long-time behavior of the probability density associated with the decoupled continuous-time random walk which is characterized by a superheavy-tailed distribution of waiting times. It is shown that if the random walk is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-05-02 S. I. Denisov , H. Kantz

Continuous Time Markov Chains, Hawkes processes and many other interesting processes can be described as solution of stochastic differential equations driven by Poisson measures. Previous works, using the Stein's method, give the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-02 Eustache Besançon , Laure Coutin , Laurent Decreusefond , Pascal Moyal

What is the optimal way to approximate a high-dimensional diffusion process by one in which the coordinates are independent? This paper presents a construction, called the \emph{independent projection}, which is optimal for two natural…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Daniel Lacker

In this article, we solve the problem of the long time behaviour of transition probabilities of time-inhomogeneous Markov processes and give a unified approach to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with periodic, quasi-periodic,…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-18 Chunrong Feng , Baoyou Qu , Huaizhong Zhao

We consider a basic one-dimensional model of diffusion which allows to obtain a diversity of diffusive regimes whose speed depends on the moments of the per-site trapping time. This model is closely related to the continuous time random…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-08 Elena Floriani , Ricardo Lima , Edgardo Ugalde

The time it takes the fastest searcher out of $N\gg1$ searchers to find a target determines the timescale of many physical, chemical, and biological processes. This time is called an extreme first passage time (FPT) and is typically much…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Sean D Lawley
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