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Complex systems comprise a large number of interacting elements, whose dynamics is not always a priori known. In these cases -- in order to uncover their key features -- we have to turn to empirical methods, one of which was recently…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Janos Kertesz , Zoltan Eisler

We consider multiple time scales systems of stochastic differential equations with small noise in random environments. We prove a quenched large deviations principle with explicit characterization of the action functional. The random medium…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-23 Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

In this paper we propose a new stochastic model based on a generalization of semi-Markov chains to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. We assume that the financial returns are described by a weighted indexed…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-05 Guglielmo D'Amico , Filippo Petroni

We initiate a study of large deviations for block model random graphs in the dense regime. Following Chatterjee-Varadhan(2011), we establish an LDP for dense block models, viewed as random graphons. As an application of our result, we study…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-17 Christian Borgs , Jennifer Chayes , Julia Gaudio , Samantha Petti , Subhabrata Sen

We revisit Wschebor's theorems on small increments for processes with scaling and stationary properties and deduce large deviation principles.

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-05 Jose R. Leon , José León , Alain Rouault

We provide a unified treatment of pathwise Large and Moderate deviations principles for a general class of multidimensional stochastic Volterra equations with singular kernels, not necessarily of convolution form. Our methodology is based…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-15 Antoine Jacquier , Alexandre Pannier

In these notes, we present some methods and applications of large deviations to finance and insurance. We begin with the classical ruin problem related to the Cramer's theorem and give en extension to an insurance model with investment in…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-02 Huyen Pham

We establish a sharp large deviation principle for renewal-reward processes, supposing that each renewal involves a broad-sense reward taking values in a real separable Banach space. In fact, we demonstrate a weak large deviation principle…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-24 Marco Zamparo

Rough volatility models have gained considerable interest in the quantitative finance community in recent years. In this paradigm, the volatility of the asset price is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with a small value for the Hurst…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-16 Carsten Chong , Marc Hoffmann , Yanghui Liu , Mathieu Rosenbaum , Grégoire Szymanski

This article concerns the large deviations regime and the consequent solution of the Kramers problem for a two-time scale stochastic system driven by a common jump noise signal perturbed in small intensity $\varepsilon>0$ and with…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-15 Pedro Catuogno , André de Oliveira Gomes

In this article, we develop a framework to study the large deviation principle for matrix models and their quantized versions, by tilting the measures using the limits of spherical integrals obtained in [46,47]. As examples, we obtain 1. a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-25 Serban Belinschi , Alice Guionnet , Jiaoyang Huang

Starting from the construction of a geometric rough path associated with a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter $H\in]{1/4}, {1/2}[$ given by Coutin and Qian (2002), we prove a large deviation principle in the space of geometric…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Annie Millet , Marta Sanz-Solé

We show existence of the weak large deviation principle, with a convex rate function, for the renormalized distance from the starting point of irreducible random walks on relatively hyperbolic groups. Under the assumption of finiteness of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-30 Emilio Corso

We prove existence of the large deviation principle, with a proper convex rate function, for the distribution of the renormalized distance from the origin of a random walk on a free product of finitely generated groups. As a consequence, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-26 Emilio Corso

Let $(g_n)_{n\geq 1}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed elements of the general linear group $GL(d, \mathbb R)$. Consider the random walk $G_n: = g_n \ldots g_1$. Under suitable conditions, we establish…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-02 Hui Xiao , Ion Grama , Quansheng Liu

In this paper, we prove the large deviation principle (LDP) for stochastic differential equations driven by stochastic integrals in one dimension. The result can be proved with a minimal use of rough path theory, and this implies the LDP…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-03 Ryoji Takano

Realized statistics based on high frequency returns have become very popular in financial economics. In recent years, different non-parametric estimators of the variation of a log-price process have appeared. These were developed by many…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-11-20 Hacène Djellout , Arnaud Guillin , Yacouba Samoura

In this paper we apply Markovian approximation of the fractional Brownian motion (BM), known as the Dobric-Ojeda (DO) process, to the fractional stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous variance is modelled by a lognormal process…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-04-22 Peter Carr , Andrey Itkin

We introduce a general class of stochastic processes driven by a multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) and study the estimation problems of their pointwise H\"older exponents (PHE) based on a new localized generalized quadratic variation…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-17 Qidi Peng , Ran Zhao

The volatility characterizes the amplitude of price return fluctuations. It is a central magnitude in finance closely related to the risk of holding a certain asset. Despite its popularity on trading floors, the volatility is unobservable…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Zoltan Eisler , Josep Perello , Jaume Masoliver