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Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are used to carry out inference in non-linear and non-Gaussian state space models, where the posterior density of the states is approximated using particles. Current approaches usually perform…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-30 Eduardo F. Mendes , Christopher K. Carter , David Gunawan , Robert Kohn

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

Decision trees are flexible models that are well suited for many statistical regression problems. In a Bayesian framework for regression trees, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms are required to generate samples of tree…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Reza Mohammadi , Matthew Pratola , Maurits Kaptein

We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on Gibbs sampling with parallel tempering to solve nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithm is applicable to nonlinear systems with dynamics that can be approximately…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-10 João Hespanha , Kerem Camsari

Bayesian computation crucially relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In the case of massive data sets, running the Metropolis-Hastings sampler to draw from the posterior distribution becomes prohibitive due to the large…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-07 Roberto Casarin , Radu V. Craiu , Fabrizio Leisen

Inferring directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is computationally challenging in moderate-to-high dimensional settings because their discrete sampling space grows super-exponentially with the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Morris Greenberg , Kieran R Campbell , Radu Craiu

Gibbs sampling is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method often used in Bayesian learning. MCMC methods can be difficult to deploy on parallel and distributed systems due to their inherently sequential nature. We study asynchronous Gibbs…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-03 Alexander Terenin , Daniel Simpson , David Draper

Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling has become a standard technique for exploring the posterior distribution of cosmological parameters constrained by observations of CMB anisotropies. Given an infinite amount of time, any MCMC sampler will…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Anze Slosar , Michael Hobson

In many hierarchical inverse problems, not only do we want to estimate high- or infinite-dimensional model parameters in the parameter-to-observable maps, but we also have to estimate hyperparameters that represent critical assumptions in…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-18 Johnathan Bardsley , Tiangang Cui

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

Bayesian variable selection requires sampling from a posterior distribution that combines discrete model indicators with continuously varying parameters, a challenge often addressed through reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC).…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Don van den Bergh , Merlise A. Clyde , Adrian E. Raftery , Maarten Marsman

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) on large datasets has developed rapidly in recent years. However, the underlying methods are generally limited to relatively simple settings where the data have specific forms of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-18 Robert Salomone , Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Mattias Villani , Minh-Ngoc Tran

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Matthias Morzfeld , Marcus S. Day , Ray W. Grout , George Shu Heng Pau , Stefan A. Finsterle , John B. Bell

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are ubiquitous tools for simulation-based inference in many fields but designing and identifying good MCMC samplers is still an open question. This paper introduces a novel MCMC algorithm, namely,…

Monte Carlo experiments produce samples in order to estimate features of a given distribution. However, simultaneous estimation of means and quantiles has received little attention, despite being common practice. In this setting we…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-24 Nathan Robertson , James M. Flegal , Dootika Vats , Galin L. Jones

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a method of producing a correlated sample in order to estimate features of a target distribution via ergodic averages. A fundamental question is when should sampling stop? That is, when are the ergodic averages…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Galin Jones , Murali Haran , Brian Caffo , Ronald Neath

Efficient sampling of many-dimensional and multimodal density functions is a task of great interest in many research fields. We describe an algorithm that allows parallelizing inherently serial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-10 Vasyl Hafych , Philipp Eller , Oliver Schulz , Allen Caldwell

Bayesian learning in undirected graphical models|computing posterior distributions over parameters and predictive quantities is exceptionally difficult. We conjecture that for general undirected models, there are no tractable MCMC (Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-19 Iain Murray , Zoubin Ghahramani

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are widely used for stochastic optimization, sampling, and integration of mathematical objective functions, in particular, in the context of Bayesian inverse problems and parameter estimation. For…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-10-12 Shashank Kumbhare , Amir Shahmoradi