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Related papers: On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks

200 papers

In many applications, it is desirable that a classifier not only makes accurate predictions, but also outputs calibrated posterior probabilities. However, many existing classifiers, especially deep neural network classifiers, tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-24 Xingchen Ma , Matthew B. Blaschko

A probabilistic model is said to be calibrated if its predicted probabilities match the corresponding empirical frequencies. Calibration is important for uncertainty quantification and decision making in safety-critical applications. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Anusri Pampari , Stefano Ermon

Ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed frequencies is critical in high-stakes domains such as clinical decision support, autonomous driving and financial risk assessment. Existing calibration methods typically apply a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Tomer Lavi , Bracha Shapira , Nadav Rappoport

In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be calibrated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-30 David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Dave Zachariah

Since neural classifiers are known to be sensitive to adversarial perturbations that alter their accuracy, \textit{certification methods} have been developed to provide provable guarantees on the insensitivity of their predictions to such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-26 Cornelius Emde , Francesco Pinto , Thomas Lukasiewicz , Philip H. S. Torr , Adel Bibi

Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Jia-Qi Yang , De-Chuan Zhan , Le Gan

The recent development of foundation models for time series data has generated considerable interest in using such models across a variety of applications. Although foundation models achieve state-of-the-art predictive performance, their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Coen Adler , Yuxin Chang , Felix Draxler , Samar Abdi , Padhraic Smyth

Deep Neural Networks have shown promising classification performance when predicting certain biomarkers from Whole Slide Images in digital pathology. However, the calibration of the networks' output probabilities is often not evaluated.…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-18 Alexander Kurz , Hendrik A. Mehrtens , Tabea-Clara Bucher , Titus J. Brinker

Despite Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved remarkable accuracy, whether the results are trustworthy is still unexplored. Previous studies suggest that many modern neural networks are over-confident on the predictions, however,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-05 Xiao Wang , Hongrui Liu , Chuan Shi , Cheng Yang

The vulnerability of models to data aberrations and adversarial attacks influences their ability to demarcate distinct class boundaries efficiently. The network's confidence and uncertainty play a pivotal role in weight adjustments and the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-15 Utkarsh Uppal , Bharat Giddwani

When facing uncertainty, decision-makers want predictions they can trust. A machine learning provider can convey confidence to decision-makers by guaranteeing their predictions are distribution calibrated -- amongst the inputs that receive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-14 Shengjia Zhao , Michael P. Kim , Roshni Sahoo , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often result uncalibrated after training, usually tending towards overconfidence. Devising effective calibration methods with low impact in terms of computational complexity is thus of central interest. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-18 Hector J. Hortua , Luigi Malago , Riccardo Volpi

The machine learning community has become increasingly concerned with the potential for bias and discrimination in predictive models. This has motivated a growing line of work on what it means for a classification procedure to be "fair." In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-07 Geoff Pleiss , Manish Raghavan , Felix Wu , Jon Kleinberg , Kilian Q. Weinberger

Deep metric learning has gained promising improvement in recent years following the success of deep learning. It has been successfully applied to problems in few-shot learning, image retrieval, and open-set classifications. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Maryna Karpusha , Sunghee Yun , Istvan Fehervari

This paper explores the calibration of a classifier output score in binary classification problems. A calibrator is a function that maps the arbitrary classifier score, of a testing observation, onto $[0,1]$ to provide an estimate for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-29 Waleed A. Yousef , Issa Traore , William Briguglio

Deep neural networks may perform poorly when training datasets are heavily class-imbalanced. Recently, two-stage methods decouple representation learning and classifier learning to improve performance. But there is still the vital issue of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-04-02 Zhisheng Zhong , Jiequan Cui , Shu Liu , Jiaya Jia

Calibration strengthens the trustworthiness of black-box models by producing better accurate confidence estimates on given examples. However, little is known about if model explanations can help confidence calibration. Intuitively, humans…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Dongfang Li , Baotian Hu , Qingcai Chen

Model calibration, which is concerned with how frequently the model predicts correctly, not only plays a vital part in statistical model design, but also has substantial practical applications, such as optimal decision-making in the real…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-18 Erdong Guo , David Draper , Maria De Iorio

Calibration is a popular framework to evaluate whether a classifier knows when it does not know - i.e., its predictive probabilities are a good indication of how likely a prediction is to be correct. Correctness is commonly estimated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Joris Baan , Wilker Aziz , Barbara Plank , Raquel Fernández

Uncertainty calibration is crucial for various machine learning applications, yet it remains challenging. Many models exhibit hallucinations - confident yet inaccurate responses - due to miscalibrated confidence. Here, we show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Jeonghwan Cheon , Se-Bum Paik