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In recent years, with the rapid growth of Internet data, the number and types of scientific and technological resources are also rapidly expanding. However, the increase in the number and category of information data will also increase the…
Training advanced AI models requires large investments in computational resources, or compute. Yet, as hardware innovation reduces the price of compute and algorithmic advances make its use more efficient, the cost of training an AI model…
We propose a simple model where the innovation rate of a technological domain depends on the innovation rate of the technological domains it relies on. Using data on US patents from 1836 to 2017, we make out-of-sample predictions and find…
This paper constructs a novel intellectual property (IP) protection strategy using differential equation theory, aiming to analyze and optimize the effectiveness of IP protection. By developing a mathematical model, it explores the dynamic…
Large language model (LLM) based coding agents increasingly act as autonomous contributors that generate and merge pull requests, yet their real-world effects on software projects are unclear-especially compared with widely adopted…
Using a model in which agents compete to develop a potentially dangerous new technology (AI), we study how changes in the pricing of factors of production (computational resources) affect agents' strategies, particularly their spending on…
The well-known Ising model used in statistical physics was adapted to a social dynamics context to simulate the adoption of a technological innovation. The model explicitly combines (a) an individual's perception of the advantages of an…
Functional technical performance usually follows an exponential dependence on time but the rate of change (the exponent) varies greatly among technological domains. This paper presents a simple model that provides an explanatory foundation…
Empirical research has shown performance improvement of many different technological domains occurs exponentially but with widely varying improvement rates. What causes some technologies to improve faster than others do? Previous…
In the era of big data, intellectual property-oriented scientific and technological resources show the trend of large data scale, high information density and low value density, which brings severe challenges to the effective use of…
Models of economic decision makers often include idealized assumptions, such as rationality, perfect foresight, and access to all relevant pieces of information. These assumptions often assure the models' internal validity, but, at the same…
We investigate knowledge exchange among commercial organisations, the rationale behind it and its effects on the market. Knowledge exchange is known to be beneficial for industry, but in order to explain it, authors have used high level…
This agent-based model contributes to a theory of corporate culture in which company performance and employees' behaviour result from the interaction between financial incentives, motivational factors and endogenous social norms. Employees'…
A model is developed to study the effectiveness of innovation and its impact on structure creation and structure change on agent-based societies. The abstract model that is developed is easily adapted to any particular field. In any…
Participants in recent discussions of AI-related issues ranging from intelligence explosion to technological unemployment have made diverse claims about the nature, pace, and drivers of progress in AI. However, these theories are rarely…
An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents is described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize…
We study long-run progress in artificial intelligence in a quantitative way. Many measures, including traditional ones such as patents and publications, machine learning benchmarks, and a new Aggregate State of the Art in ML (or ASOTA)…
Energy efficiency technologies (EETs) are crucial for saving energy and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. However, the diffusion of EETs in small and medium-sized enterprises is rather slow. Literature shows the interactions between…
Humanity is progressing towards automated product development, a trend that promises faster creation of better products and thus the acceleration of technological progress. However, increasing reliance on non-human agents for this process…
Different technological domains have significantly different rates of performance improvement. Prior theory indicates that such differing rates should influence the relative speed of diffusion of the products embodying the different…