Related papers: Fiducial on a string
This paper expands the notion of robust profit opportunities in financial markets to incorporate distributional uncertainty using Wasserstein distance as the ambiguity measure. Financial markets with risky and risk-free assets are…
Inferential models have recently gained in popularity for valid uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we investigate inferential models by exploring relationships between inferential models, fiducial inference, and confidence curves.…
Confidence intervals are assessed according to two criteria, namely expected length and coverage probability. In an attempt to apply the decision-theoretic method to finding a good confidence interval, a loss function that is a linear…
When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the…
In this paper we examine the problem of inference in Bayesian Networks with discrete random variables that have very large or even unbounded domains. For example, in a domain where we are trying to identify a person, we may have variables…
We address the satisfiability problem for string constraints that combine relational constraints represented by transducers, word equations, and string length constraints. This problem is undecidable in general. Therefore, we propose a new…
We study belief revision when information is represented by a set of probability distributions, or general information. General information extends the standard event notion while including qualitative information (A is more likely than B),…
The most fundamental problem in statistics is the inference of an unknown probability distribution from a finite number of samples. For a specific observed data set, answers to the following questions would be desirable: (1) Estimation:…
This essay presents a critical evaluation of the concepts of string theory and its impact on particle physics. The point of departure is a historical review of four decades of ST within the broader context of six decades of failed attempts…
I begin my discussion by giving an overview of the main results. Then I proceed to touch upon issues about whether the credible ball constructed can be interpreted as a confidence ball, suggestions on reducing computational costs, and…
We consider structural vector autoregressions subject to 'narrative restrictions', which are inequality restrictions on functions of the structural shocks in specific periods. These restrictions raise novel problems related to…
The study of semifeasible algorithms was initiated by Selman's work a quarter of century ago [Sel79,Sel81,Sel82]. Informally put, this research stream studies the power of those sets L for which there is a deterministic (or in some cases,…
We consider a population of Bayesian agents who share a common prior over some finite state space and each agent is exposed to some information about the state. We ask which distributions over empirical distributions of posteriors beliefs…
Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…
Subjective probability is based on the intuitive idea that probability quantifies the degree of belief that an event will occur. A probability theory based on this idea represents the most general framework for handling uncertainty. A brief…
Causal theory is now widely developed with many applications to medicine and public health. However within the discipline of reliability, although causation is a key concept in this field, there has been much less theoretical attention. In…
This paper revisits the simple, but empirically salient, problem of inference on a real-valued parameter that is partially identified through upper and lower bounds with asymptotically normal estimators. A simple confidence interval is…
In the book "String Theory and the Scientific Method", Richard Dawid describes a few of the many non-empirical arguments that motivate theoretical physicists' confidence in a theory, taking string theory as case study. I argue that…
McFadden and Richter (1991) and later McFadden (2005) show that the Axiom of Revealed Stochastic Preference characterizes rationalizability of choice probabilities through random utility models on finite universal choice spaces. This note…
We review the introduction of likelihood functions and Fisher information in classical estimation theory, and we show how they can be defined in a very similar manner within quantum measurement theory. We show that the stochastic master…