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We introduce an algorithm for identifying interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects, given an estimate of individual or conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Subgroups are characterized by ``rule sets'' --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-15 Albert Chiu

BART (Bayesian Additive Regression Trees) has become increasingly popular as a flexible and scalable nonparametric regression approach for modern applied statistics problems. For the practitioner dealing with large and complex nonlinear…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-11 Matthew Pratola , Hugh Chipman , Edward George , Robert McCulloch

Estimating individualised treatment effect (ITE) -- that is the causal effect of a set of variables (also called exposures, treatments, actions, policies, or interventions), referred to as \textit{composite treatments}, on a set of outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Lei Clifton , Gaurav Nigam , David A. Clifton

Meta learning uses information from base learners (e.g. classifiers or estimators) as well as information about the learning problem to improve upon the performance of a single base learner. For example, the Bayes error rate of a given…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-11 Kevin R. Moon , Veronique Delouille , Alfred O. Hero

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in survival settings is complicated by right censoring as well as the time-varying nature of the estimand. While the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) provides a natural target, most…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-14 Yuming Sun , Jian Kang , Yi Li

Randomized controlled trials often enroll participants whose characteristics differ from those of a target population, which can limit the generalizability of the estimated treatment effects when effect modifiers differ across populations.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Lan Wen , Issa J. Dahabreh , Yu-Han Chiu

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-09 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

The conditional tail average treatment effect (CTATE) is defined as a difference between the conditional tail expectations of potential outcomes, which can capture heterogeneity and deliver aggregated local information on treatment effects…

Applications · Statistics 2024-05-21 Le-Yu Chen , Yu-Min Yen

This paper develops a novel stochastic tree ensemble method for nonlinear regression, which we refer to as XBART, short for Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. By combining regularization and stochastic search strategies from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-04 Jingyu He , P. Richard Hahn

Dropout is common in clinical studies, with up to half of patients leaving early due to side effects or other reasons. When dropout is informative (i.e., dependent on survival time), it introduces censoring bias, because of which treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Stefan Feuerriegel

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is a commonly targeted statistical parameter for measuring the effect of a treatment conditional on covariates. However, the CATE will fail to capture effects of treatments beyond differences…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Jeffrey Näf , Junhyung Park , Herbert Susmann

With an increasing focus on precision medicine in medical research, numerous studies have been conducted in recent years to clarify the relationship between treatment effects and patient characteristics. The treatment effects for patients…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-22 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

Most clinical trials involve the comparison of a new treatment to a control arm (e.g., the standard of care) and the estimation of a treatment effect. External data, including historical clinical trial data and real-world observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-17 Tianjian Zhou , Yuan Ji

In multi-site randomized trials with many sites and few randomization units per site, an Empirical-Bayes estimator can be used to estimate the variance of the treatment effect across sites. When this estimator indicates that treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Clément de Chaisemartin , Antoine Deeb

Motivated by applications in precision medicine and treatment effect heterogeneity, recent research has focused on estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) using machine learning (ML). CATE estimates may represent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-30 Oliver J. Hines , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

While machine learning (ML) methods have received a lot of attention in recent years, these methods are primarily for prediction. Empirical researchers conducting policy evaluations are, on the other hand, pre-occupied with causal problems,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Noemi Kreif , Karla DiazOrdaz

Earth Observation (EO) data are increasingly used in policy analysis by enabling granular estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE). However, a challenge in EO-based causal inference is determining the scale of the input…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-18 Fucheng Warren Zhu , Connor T. Jerzak , Adel Daoud

This paper introduces a novel approach for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects of binary treatment in panel data, particularly focusing on short panel data with large cross-sectional data and observed confoundings. In contrast to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Meijia Wang , Ignacio Martinez , P. Richard Hahn

Meta-learning algorithms produce feature extractors which achieve state-of-the-art performance on few-shot classification. While the literature is rich with meta-learning methods, little is known about why the resulting feature extractors…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Micah Goldblum , Steven Reich , Liam Fowl , Renkun Ni , Valeriia Cherepanova , Tom Goldstein

The growing demand for personalized decision-making has led to a surge of interest in estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). Various types of CATE estimators have been developed with advancements in machine learning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Siyi Wang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu