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We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…
Sampling from the conditional (or posterior) probability distribution of the latent states of a Hidden Markov Model, given the realization of the observed process, is a non-trivial problem in the context of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To do…
In this paper, we seek to understand the behavior of dynamical systems that are perturbed by a parameter that changes discretely in time. If we impose certain conditions, we can study certain embedded systems within a hybrid system as…
Stationary time series models built from parametric distributions are, in general, limited in scope due to the assumptions imposed on the residual distribution and autoregression relationship. We present a modeling approach for univariate…
For a class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes, the supports of the invariant measures are characterized. This is based on the analysis of controllability properties of an associated deterministic control system. Its invariant…
We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…
The conventional perspective on Markov chains considers decision problems concerning the probabilities of temporal properties being satisfied by traces of visited states. However, consider the following query made of a stochastic system…
We provide a framework for empirical process theory of locally stationary processes using the functional dependence measure. Our results extend known results for stationary Markov chains and mixing sequences by another common possibility to…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
The asymptotic normality in multi-dimension of the nonparametric estimator of the transition probabilities of a Markov renewal chain is proved, and is applied to that of other nonparametric estimators involved with the associated…
In the field of large deviations for stochastic dynamics, the canonical conditioning of a given Markov process with respect to a given time-local trajectory observable over a large time-window has attracted a lot of interest recently. In…
We study a class of stationary Markov processes with marginal distributions identifiable by moments such that every conditional moment of degree say $m$ is a polynomial of degree at most $m\;\text{.}\;$ We show that then under some…
The purpose of this paper is to study the time average behavior of Markov chains with transition probabilities being kernels of completely continuous operators, and therefore to provide a sufficient condition for a class of Markov chains…
A general class of Markov processes with a local interaction is introduced, which includes exclusion and Kawasaki processes as a very particular case. Bernoulli invariant measures are found for this class of processes.
We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the properties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly start…
When analysing time series an important issue is to decide whether the time series is stationary or a random walk. Relaxing these notions, we consider the problem to decide in favor of the I(0)- or I(1)-property. Fixed-sample statistical…
We introduce a single generative mechanism with which it is able to describe diverse non-stationary diffusions. A non-stationary Markovian replication process for steps is considered, for which we analytically derive time-evolution of the…
In this paper we discuss how the notion of subgeometric ergodicity in Markov chain theory can be exploited to study stationarity and ergodicity of nonlinear time series models. Subgeometric ergodicity means that the transition probability…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…