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We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…
We investigate the statistical complexity of estimating the parameters of a discrete-state Markov chain kernel from a single long sequence of state observations. In the finite case, we characterize (modulo logarithmic factors) the minimax…
We consider the fluctuations of a time-integrated particle current around an atypical value in a generic stochastic Markov process involving classical particles with two-site interaction and hardcore repulsion on a finite one-dimensional…
Markov chain analysis is a key technique in formal verification. A practical obstacle is that all probabilities in Markov models need to be known. However, system quantities such as failure rates or packet loss ratios, etc. are often not --…
We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…
The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…
This paper focuses on time-varying delayed stochastic differential systems with stochastically switching parameters formulated by a unified switching behavior combining a discrete adapted process and a Cox process. Unlike prior studies…
Rate processes are simple and analytically tractable models for many dynamical systems which switch stochastically between a discrete set of quasi stationary states but they may also approximate continuous processes by coarse grained,…
When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This can be done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…
We observe n possibly dependent random variables, the distribution of which is presumed to be stationary even though this might not be true, and we aim at estimating the stationary distribution. We establish a non-asymptotic deviation bound…
We investigate the parameter recovery of Markov-switching ordinary differential processes from discrete observations, where the differential equations are nonlinear additive models. This framework has been widely applied in biological…
We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…
We investigate the stability of quantum Markov processes with respect to perturbations of their transition maps. In the first part, we introduce a condition number that measures the sensitivity of fixed points of a quantum channel to…
We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…
This paper deals with a unifying approach to the problems of computing the admissible sets of parametrical multi perturbations in appropriate bounded sets such that some fundamental properties of parameter-varying linear dynamic systems are…
We study a limit behavior of a sequence of Markov processes (or Markov chains) such that their distributions outside of any neighborhood of a "singular" point attract to some probability law. In any neighborhood of this point the behavior…
We examine reaction networks (CRNs) through their associated continuous-time Markov processes. Studying the dynamics of such networks is in general hard, both analytically and by simulation. In particular, stationary distributions of…
We study discrete time Markov processes with periodic or open boundary conditions and with inhomogeneous rates in the bulk. The Markov matrices are given by the inhomogeneous transfer matrices introduced previously to prove the…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
Let $P$ be a Markov kernel on a measurable space $\X$ and let $V:\X\r[1,+\infty)$. This paper provides explicit connections between the $V$-geometric ergodicity of $P$ and that of finite-rank nonnegative sub-Markov kernels $\Pc_k$…