Related papers: Quantifying the recency of HIV infection using mul…
Inference of the reproduction number through time is of vital importance during an epidemic outbreak. Typically, epidemiologists tackle this using observed prevalence or incidence data. However, prevalence and incidence data alone is often…
In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…
This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible $\to$ infected $\to$ removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an…
In this article, we propose a network spread model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread.…
The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…
In this paper, we construct a model to describe the transmission of HIV in a homogeneous host population. By considering the specific mechanism of HIV, we derive a model structured in three successive stages: (i) primary infection, (ii)…
HIV-1 can disseminate between susceptible cells by two mechanisms: cell-free infection following fluid-phase diffusion of virions and by highly-efficient direct cell-to-cell transmission at immune cell contacts. The contribution of this…
When simulating biological populations under different evolutionary genetic models, backward or forward strategies can be followed. Backward simulations, also called coalescent-based simulations, are computationally very efficient. However,…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal…
We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the…
Methods are lacking to handle the problem of survival analysis in the presence of an interval-censored covariate, specifically the case in which the conditional hazard of the primary event of interest depends on the occurrence of a…
The primary goal of public health efforts to control HIV epidemics is to diagnose and treat people with HIV infection as soon as possible after seroconversion. The timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment after HIV…
We consider a simple deterministic model which describes an asymmetric competition between an immune system with a specific and powerful response, and a virus with a broad toxicity and fast mutations. Interest in this model relies on the…
Proliferation of uninfected as well as infected hepatocytes and recycling of DNA-containing capsids are two major mechanisms playing significant roles in the clearance of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. In this study, the temporal…
In recent years, it is evidenced that the individuals newly infected HIV are transmitting the virus prior to knowing their HIV status. Identifying individuals that are early in infection with HIV antibody negative (window period) remains…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
The rates of escape and reversion in response to selection pressure arising from the host immune system, notably the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, are key factors determining the evolution of HIV. Existing methods for estimating…
We propose a flexible joint longitudinal-survival framework to examine the association between longitudinally collected biomarkers and a time-to-event endpoint. More specifically, we use our method for analyzing the survival outcome of…
In this work, we present two defective regression models for the analysis of interval-censored competing risk data in the presence of cured individuals, viz., defective Gompertz and defective inverse Gaussian regression models. The proposed…