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The nature of available economic data has changed fundamentally in the last decade due to the economy's digitisation. With the prevalence of often black box data-driven machine learning methods, there is a necessity to develop interpretable…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-28 Pratha Khandelwal , Philip Nadler , Rossella Arcucci , William Knottenbelt , Yi-Ke Guo

In this paper, we present a maximum likelihood estimation approach to determine the value vector in transformer models. We model the sequence of value vectors, key vectors, and the query vector as a sequence of Gaussian distributions. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Jiyong Ma

Network clustering reveals the organization of a network or corresponding complex system with elements represented as vertices and interactions as edges in a (directed, weighted) graph. Although the notion of clustering can be somewhat…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-15 Yongjin Park , Joel S. Bader

Software for computation of maximum likelihood estimates in linear structural equation models typically employs general techniques from non-linear optimization, such as quasi-Newton methods. In practice, careful tuning of initial values is…

Computation · Statistics 2016-10-12 Mathias Drton , Christopher Fox , Y. Samuel Wang

Block-based resampling estimators have been intensively investigated for weakly dependent time processes, which has helped to inform implementation (e.g., best block sizes). However, little is known about resampling performance and block…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-04 Qihao Zhang , Soumendra N. Lahiri , Daniel J. Nordman

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-05 Jeffrey D. Scargle , Jay P. Norris , Brad Jackson , James Chiang

Sequentially obtained dataset usually exhibits different behavior at different data resolutions/scales. Instead of inferring from data at each scale individually, it is often more informative to interpret the data as an ensemble of time…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2021-03-19 Yuan Yang , Jie Ding

We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-30 Karthyek R. A. Murthy , Sandeep Juneja , Jose Blanchet

The asymptotic results that underlie applications of extreme random fields often assume that the variables are located on a regular discrete grid, identified with $\mathbb{Z}^2$, and that they satisfy stationarity and isotropy conditions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-03 Helena Ferreira , Luísa Pereira , Ana Paula Martins

The extremal index parameter theta characterizes the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary time series and has important applications in a number of areas, such as hydrology, telecommunications, finance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-05-25 Kamal Hamidieh , Stilian A. Stoev , George Michailidis

Extremes occur in stationary regularly varying time series as short periods with several large observations, known as extremal blocks. We study cluster statistics summarizing the behavior of functions acting on these extremal blocks.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-07 Gloria Buriticá , Olivier Wintenberger

This paper deals with the design of a model-based rapid fault detection and isolation strategy using sliding mode observers. To address this problem, a new scheme is proposed by adaptively combining the information provided by a bank of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-04-25 Mehran Shakarami , Kasra Esfandiari , Amir Aboulfazl Suratgar , Heidar Ali Talebi

This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-19 Ragnhild C. Noven , Almut E. D. Veraart , Axel Gandy

We consider discrete time dynamical systems and show the link between Hitting Time Statistics (the distribution of the first time points land in asymptotically small sets) and Extreme Value Theory (distribution properties of the partial…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2010-06-17 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees, Segers and Warcho{\l} [Extremes (2015) 18, 369--402] proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-30 R. A. Davis , H. Drees , J. Segers , M. Warchoł

Estimation of extreme-value parameters from observations in the max-domain of attraction (MDA) of a multivariate max-stable distribution commonly uses aggregated data such as block maxima. Since we expect that additional information is…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-26 Sebastian Engelke , Alexander Malinowski , Zakhar Kabluchko , Martin Schlather

Variational inference methods have been shown to lead to significant improvements in the computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian inference in mixed multinomial logit models when compared to standard Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2020-04-14 Filipe Rodrigues

The occurrence of successive extreme observations can have an impact on society. In extreme value theory there are parameters to evaluate the effect of clustering of high values, such as the extremal index. The estimation of the extremal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-03 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

Model selection in latent block models has been a challenging but important task in the field of statistics. Specifically, a major challenge is encountered when constructing a test on a block structure obtained by applying a specific…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Chihiro Watanabe , Taiji Suzuki

The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-23 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira