Related papers: Understanding Betting Strategy
Strategic decision-making in uncertain and adversarial environments is crucial for the security of modern systems and infrastructures. A salient feature of many optimal decision-making policies is a level of unpredictability, or randomness,…
Over the last few decades, the player recruitment process in professional football has evolved into a multi-billion industry and has thus become of vital importance. To gain insights into the general level of their candidate reinforcements,…
Twitter has been proven to be a notable source for predictive modelling on various domains such as the stock market, the dissemination of diseases or sports outcomes. However, such a study has not been conducted in football (soccer) so far.…
The article considers strategies of coalitions that are based on intelligence information about moves of some of the other agents. The main technical result is a sound and complete logical system that describes the interplay between…
I study the optimal pricing process for selling a unit good to a buyer with prospect theory preferences. In the presence of probability weighting, the buyer is dynamically inconsistent and can be either sophisticated or naive about her own…
In fantasy sports, strategic thinking-not mere luck-often defines who wins and who falls short. As fantasy cricket grows in popularity across India, understanding whether success stems from skill or chance has become both an analytical and…
The chances to win a football match can be significantly increased if the right tactic is chosen and the behavior of the opposite team is well anticipated. For this reason, every professional football club employs a team of game analysts.…
We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. We define the problem setting, the formal investment strategies, and review their common…
Quantum Decision Theory, advanced earlier by the authors, and illustrated for lotteries with gains, is generalized to the games containing lotteries with gains as well as losses. The mathematical structure of the approach is based on the…
We develop a new method for stochastic optimization using the Bayesian statistics approach. More precisely, we optimize parameters of chess engines as those data are available to us, but the method should apply to all situations where we…
We illustrate how one can use basic combinatorial theory and computer programming technique (Python) to analyze the combinatorial game: Mahjong. The results confirm some folklore concerning the game, and expose some unexpected results.…
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…
This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch…
With the development of measurement technology, data on the movements of actual games in various sports can be obtained and used for planning and evaluating the tactics and strategy. Defense in team sports is generally difficult to be…
There has been considerable work on reasoning about the strategic ability of agents under imperfect information. However, existing logics such as Probabilistic Strategy Logic are unable to express properties relating to information…
In the UK betting market, bookmakers often offer a free coupon to new customers. These free coupons allow the customer to place extra bets, at lower risk, in combination with the usual betting odds. We are interested in whether a customer…
In this paper we analyse tiebreak results from some tennis players in order to investigate whether we are able to identify some strategy in this crucial moment of the game. We compared the observed results with a binomial distribution…
When $n$ teams play in a football league with home and away matches against every opponent there are $M = n \cdot (n-1)$ matches. There are 3 possible match results: a victory is awarded 3 points, a draw 1 point and 0 points for a defeat.…
Game-theoretic interactions with AI agents could differ from traditional human-human interactions in various ways. One such difference is that it may be possible to simulate an AI agent (for example because its source code is known), which…
The laws of chance are often subtle and deceptive. This is why games of chance work. People are convinced that they obey seemingly intuitive laws, while the underlying mathematical structure reveals a different and more complex reality.…