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We consider Bayesian design of experiments problems in which we maximise the prior expectation of a utility function over a set of permutations, for example when sequencing a number of tasks to perform. When the number of tasks is large and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-03 Kevin J Wilson , Daniel A Henderson , John Quigley

By fixing all parameters in a phylogenetic likelihood model except for one branch length, one obtains a one-dimensional likelihood function. In this work, we introduce a mathematical framework to characterize the shapes of such…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-07-25 Vu Dinh , Frederick A. Matsen

Phylogenetic inference, the task of reconstructing how related sequences evolved from common ancestors, is a central objective in evolutionary genomics. The current state-of-the-art methods exploit probabilistic models of sequence evolution…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-02-19 Luc Blassel , Noémie Sauvage , Pierre Barrat-Charlaix , Bastien Boussau , Nicolas Lartillot , Laurent Jacob

Surrogate models are used to alleviate the computational burden in engineering tasks, which require the repeated evaluation of computationally demanding models of physical systems, such as the efficient propagation of uncertainties. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-28 Felix Schneider , Iason Papaioannou , Gerhard Müller

Computational models provide crucial insights into complex biological processes such as cancer evolution, but their mechanistic nature often makes them nonlinear and parameter-rich, complicating calibration. We systematically evaluate…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-09-24 Christina Schenk , Jacobo Ayensa Jiménez , Ignacio Romero

Spectral estimators have been broadly applied to statistical network analysis, but they do not incorporate the likelihood information of the network sampling model. This paper proposes a novel surrogate likelihood function for statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Dingbo Wu , Fangzheng Xie

Surrogate models are often used as computationally efficient approximations to complex simulation models, enabling tasks such as solving inverse problems, sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic forward predictions, which would otherwise be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-13 Philipp Reiser , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Anneli Guthke

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , David J Warne , David J Nott , Christopher Drovandi

By providing a framework of accounting for the shared ancestry inherent to all life, phylogenetics is becoming the statistical foundation of biology. The importance of model choice continues to grow as phylogenetic models continue to…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-02-05 Jamie R. Oaks , Kerry A. Cobb , Vladimir N. Minin , Adam D. Leaché

This paper describes a simple, but effective sampling method for optimizing and learning a discrete approximation (or surrogate) of a multi-dimensional function along a one-dimensional line segment of interest. The method does not rely on…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-07-21 Dimitri J. Papageorgiou , Jan Kronqvist , Krishnan Kumaran

Recently surrogate functions based on the tail inequalities were developed to evaluate the chance constraints in the context of evolutionary computation and several Pareto optimization algorithms using these surrogates were successfully…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-19 Xiankun Yan , Aneta Neumann , Frank Neumann

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for exponential family models with intractable normalizing constant, such as the exchange algorithm, require simulations of the sufficient statistics at every iteration of the Markov chain, which often…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-21 Quan Vu , Matthew T. Moores , Andrew Zammit-Mangion

A surrogate function is often employed to reduce the number of objective function evaluations for optimization. However, the effect of using a surrogate model in evolutionary approaches has not been theoretically investigated. This paper…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-04-07 Youhei Akimoto

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is currently done via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with simple proposal mechanisms. This hinders exploration efficiency and often requires long runs to deliver accurate posterior estimates. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Cheng Zhang , Frederick A. Matsen

Phylogenetic trees describe the relationships between species in the evolutionary process, and provide information about the rates of diversification. To understand the mechanisms behind macroevolution, we consider a class of multitype…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-07 Mingqi He , Sophie Hautphenne , Yao-ban Chan

We consider the branch-length estimation problem on a bifurcating tree: a character evolves along the edges of a binary tree according to a two-state symmetric Markov process, and we seek to recover the edge transition probabilities from…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-30 David Clancy , Hanbaek Lyu , Sebastien Roch

Multidisciplinary design optimization methods aim at adapting numerical optimization techniques to the design of engineering systems involving multiple disciplines. In this context, a large number of mixed continuous, integer and…

In Bayesian phylogenetics, our goal is to estimate the posterior distribution over phylogenetic trees. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are widely used to approximate the phylogenetic posterior distributions. For large-scale sequence data,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Wentao Yu , Shijia Wang

Probability estimation of tree topologies is one of the fundamental tasks in phylogenetic inference. The recently proposed subsplit Bayesian networks (SBNs) provide a powerful probabilistic graphical model for tree topology probability…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-10 Tianyu Xie , Musu Yuan , Minghua Deng , Cheng Zhang

Motivation: Gene selection has become a common task in most gene expression studies. The objective of such research is often to identify the smallest possible set of genes that can still achieve good predictive performance. The problem of…

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