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This article considers a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model and investigates return predictability in a Bayesian context. The VAR system comprises asset returns and the dividend-price ratio as proposed in Cochrane (2008), and allows…

Applications · Statistics 2022-12-06 Borys Koval , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Leopold Sögner

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is perhaps the most prevalent optimization method in modern machine learning. Contrary to the empirical practice of sampling from the datasets without replacement and with (possible) reshuffling at each…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-08 Xufeng Cai , Cheuk Yin Lin , Jelena Diakonikolas

PAC-Bayesian set up involves a stochastic classifier characterized by a posterior distribution on a classifier set, offers a high probability bound on its averaged true risk and is robust to the training sample used. For a given posterior,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-17 Puja Sahu , Nandyala Hemachandra

Score based learning (SBL) is a promising approach for learning Bayesian networks in the discrete domain. However, when employing SBL in the continuous domain, one is either forced to move the problem to the discrete domain or use metrics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Borzou Alipourfard , Jean X. Gao

We propose a unified framework for global-local regularization that bridges the gap between classical techniques -- such as ridge regression and the nonnegative garotte -- and modern Bayesian hierarchical modeling. By estimating local…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-17 Jyotishka Datta , Nick Polson , Vadim Sokolov

Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) is a powerful framework for attaining sparsity in probabilistic models. Herein, we propose a coordinate ascent algorithm for SBL termed Relevance Matching Pursuit (RMP) and show that, as its noise variance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-14 Sebastian Ament , Carla Gomes

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) is a method that merges principles from Bayesian statistics and reinforcement learning to make optimal decisions in uncertain environments. As a model-based RL method, it has two key components: (1)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-03 Shreya Sinha Roy , Richard G. Everitt , Christian P. Robert , Ritabrata Dutta

In the last two decades, several methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) have been proposed for Bayesian identification of stochastic non-linear state-space models (SSMs). It is well known that the…

Applications · Statistics 2013-07-25 Aditya Tulsyan , Biao Huang , R. Bhushan Gopaluni , J. Fraser Forbes

The accuracy and precision of high-energy spallation models are key issues for the design and development of new applications and experiments. We present a method to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties by leveraging the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-06-28 Jason Hirtz , Jean-Christophe David , Joseph Cugnon , Ingo Leya , José Luís Rodríguez-Sánchez , Georg Schnabel

We consider the least-square linear regression problem with regularization by the $\ell^1$-norm, a problem usually referred to as the Lasso. In this paper, we first present a detailed asymptotic analysis of model consistency of the Lasso in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2009-01-22 Francis Bach

Sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) associates to each weight in the underlying linear model a hyperparameter by assuming that each weight is Gaussian distributed with zero mean and precision (inverse variance) equal to its associated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-02 Jakob Möderl , Erik Leitinger , Bernard Henri Fleury

Model averaging methods have become an increasingly popular tool for improving predictions and dealing with model uncertainty, especially in Bayesian settings. Recently, frequentist model averaging methods such as information theoretic and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-18 Kevin Huynh

We study a mean-field spike and slab variational Bayes (VB) approximation to Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, oracle inequalities are derived…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-20 Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo

We study non-stationary linear contextual bandits through the lens of sequential Bayesian inference. Whereas existing algorithms typically rely on the Weighted Regularized Least-Squares (WRLS) objective, we study Weighted Sequential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Nicklas Werge , Yi-Shan Wu , Abdullah Akgül , Melih Kandemir

Linear Least Squares is a very well known technique for parameter estimation, which is used even when sub-optimal, because of its very low computational requirements and the fact that exact knowledge of the noise statistics is not required.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2017-11-01 Michael Krikheli , Amir Leshem

Shuffled linear regression (SLR) seeks to estimate latent features through a linear transformation, complicated by unknown permutations in the measurement dimensions. This problem extends traditional least-squares (LS) and Least Absolute…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-17 Hang Liu , Anna Scaglione

Least squares (LS)-based subset selection methods are popular in linear regression modeling. Best subset selection (BS) is known to be NP-hard and has a computational cost that grows exponentially with the number of predictors. Recently,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-09 Sen Tian , Clifford M. Hurvich , Jeffrey S. Simonoff

We derive sharp performance bounds for least squares regression with $L_1$ regularization from parameter estimation accuracy and feature selection quality perspectives. The main result proved for $L_1$ regularization extends a similar…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-21 Tong Zhang

In the present work, we consider variable selection and shrinkage for the Gaussian dynamic linear regression within a Bayesian framework. In particular, we propose a novel method that allows for time-varying sparsity, based on an extension…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-30 Paloma W. Uribe , Hedibert F. Lopes

This study proposes a novel hierarchical prior for inferring possibly low-rank matrices measured with noise. We consider three-component matrix factorization, as in singular value decomposition, and its fully Bayesian inference. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-09 Masahiro Tanaka