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We evaluate the robustness of a probabilistic formulation of system identification (ID) to sparse, noisy, and indirect data. Specifically, we compare estimators of future system behavior derived from the Bayesian posterior of a learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Nicholas Galioto , Alex Gorodetsky

Sparse high-dimensional linear regression is a central problem in statistics, where the goal is often variable selection and/or coefficient estimation. We propose a mean-field variational Bayes approximation for sparse regression with…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Chadi Bsila , Yiqi Tang , Kaiwen Wang , Laurie Heyer

Bayesian optimisation is an adaptive sampling strategy for constructing a Gaussian process surrogate to efficiently search for the global minimum of a black-box computational model. Gaussian processes have limited applicability in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-04 Thomas A. Archbold , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Fehmi Cirak

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Joshua J Bon , David J Warne , David J Nott , Christopher Drovandi

The standard asymmetric Laplace framework for Bayesian quantile regression (BQR) suffers from a fundamental decision-theoretic misalignment, yielding biased finite-sample estimates, and precludes gradient-based computation due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 Bingqi Liu , Kangqiang Li , Tianxiao Pang

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-08-01 Qingping Zhou , Wenqing Liu , Jinglai Li , Youssef M. Marzouk

The Bayesian lasso is well-known as a Bayesian alternative for Lasso. Although the advantage of the Bayesian lasso is capable of full probabilistic uncertain quantification for parameters, the corresponding posterior distribution can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-06 Jun Kawakami , Shintaro Hashimoto

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-15 Lizhen Xu , Radu V. Craiu , Lei Sun

We introduce a new methodology dubbed ``safe peeling'' to accelerate the resolution of L0-regularized least-squares problems via a Branch-and-Bound (BnB) algorithm. Our procedure enables to tighten the convex relaxation considered at each…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-07 Théo Guyard , Gilles Monnoyer , Clément Elvira , Cédric Herzet

Simulation-based calibration (SBC) is a method for validating inference algorithms and model implementations through repeated inference on data simulated from a generative model. For a model to be generative, one must specify proper priors.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Luna Fazio , Maximilian Scholz , Javier Enrique Aguilar , Paul-Christian Bürkner

We propose a novel spike and slab prior specification with scaled beta prime marginals for the importance parameters of regression coefficients to allow for general effect selection within the class of structured additive distributional…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-30 Nadja Klein , Manuel Carlan , Thomas Kneib , Stefan Lang , Helga Wagner

The challenges posed by high-dimensional data and use of the simplex constraint are two major concerns in the empirical application of the synthetic control method (SCM) in econometric studies. To address both issues simultaneously, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Yihong Xu , Quan Zhou

An important task in building regression models is to decide which regressors should be included in the final model. In a Bayesian approach, variable selection can be performed using mixture priors with a spike and a slab component for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-19 Gertraud Malsiner-Walli , Helga Wagner

Many regularization schemes for high-dimensional regression have been put forward. Most require the choice of a tuning parameter, using model selection criteria or cross-validation schemes. We show that a simple non-negative or…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-02-07 Nicolai Meinshausen

We propose a Bayesian approach, called the posterior spectral embedding, for estimating the latent positions in random dot product graphs, and prove its optimality. Unlike the classical spectral-based adjacency/Laplacian spectral embedding,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-30 Fangzheng Xie , Yanxun Xu

In this letter, we address sparse signal recovery using spike and slab priors. In particular, we focus on a Bayesian framework where sparsity is enforced on reconstruction coefficients via probabilistic priors. The optimization resulting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-05-28 Hojjat S. Mousavi , Vishal Monga , Trac D. Tran

This paper studies Bayesian variable selection in linear models with general spherically symmetric error distributions. We propose sub-harmonic priors which arise as a class of mixtures of Zellner's g-priors for which the Bayes factors are…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-12 Yuzo Maruyama , William E. Strawderman

Gaussian multiplicative noise is commonly used as a stochastic regularisation technique in training of deterministic neural networks. A recent paper reinterpreted the technique as a specific algorithm for approximate inference in Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-09 Jiri Hron , Alexander G. de G. Matthews , Zoubin Ghahramani

The horseshoe prior has proven to be a noteworthy alternative for sparse Bayesian estimation, but has previously suffered from two problems. First, there has been no systematic way of specifying a prior for the global shrinkage…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari

Sparse convex clustering is to cluster observations and conduct variable selection simultaneously in the framework of convex clustering. Although a weighted $L_1$ norm is usually employed for the regularization term in sparse convex…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-27 Kaito Shimamura , Shuichi Kawano
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