Related papers: Evolutionary dynamics of incubation periods
Levels of sociality in nature vary widely. Some species are solitary; others live in family groups; some form complex multi-family societies. Increased levels of social interaction can allow for the spread of useful innovations and…
We explore simple models aimed at the study of social contagion, in which contagion proceeds through two stages. When coupled with demographic turnover, we show that two-stage contagion leads to nonlinear phenomena which are not present in…
Epidemiological delays, such as incubation periods, serial intervals, and hospital lengths of stay, are among key quantities in infectious disease epidemiology that inform public health policy and clinical practice. This information is used…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies like the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans are neurodegenerative diseases for which prions are the attributed pathogenic agents. A widely…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Natural populations often show enhanced genetic drift consistent with a strong skew in their offspring number distribution. The skew arises because the variability of family sizes is either inherently strong or amplified by population…
Contacts between individuals serve as pathways where infections may propagate. These contact patterns can be represented by network structures. Static structures have been the common modeling paradigm but recent results suggest that…
Many illnesses are associated with an alteration of the immune system homeostasis due to any combination of factors, including exogenous bacterial insult, endogenous breakdown (e.g., development of a disease that results in immuno…
Diseases and other contagion phenomena in nature and society can interact asymmetrically, such that one can benefit from the other, which in turn impairs the first, in analogy with predator-prey systems. Here, we consider two models for…
Social interactions are stratified in multiple contexts and are subject to complex temporal dynamics. The systematic study of these two features of social systems has started only very recently mainly thanks to the development of multiplex…
Evolution has fascinated quantitative and physical scientists for decades: how can the random process of mutation, recombination, and duplication of genetic information generate the diversity of life? What determines the rate of evolution?…
We introduce a 2-layer network model for the study of the immunization dynamics in epidemics. Spreading of an epidemic is modeled as an excitatory process in a small-world network (body layer) while immunization by prevention for the…
Antigenic escape constitutes the main mechanism allowing rapidly evolving viruses to achieve endemicity. Beyond granting immune escape, empirical evidence also suggests that mutations of viruses might increase their inter-host…
Evolutionary graph theory is a well established framework for modelling the evolution of social behaviours in structured populations. An emerging consensus in this field is that graphs that exhibit heterogeneity in the number of connections…
We explore the role of cellular life cycles for viruses and host cells in an infection process. For this purpose, we derive a generalized version of the basic model of virus dynamics (Nowak, M.A., Bangham, C.R.M., 1996. Population dynamics…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
Epidemic models study the spread of an undesired agent through a population, be it infectious diseases through a country, misinformation in online social media, or pests infesting a region. In combating these epidemics, we rely neither on…
We present a novel mathematical model of heterogeneous cell proliferation where the total population consists of a subpopulation of slow-proliferating cells and a subpopulation of fast-proliferating cells. The model incorporates two…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…