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The Brown-Resnick max-stable process has proven to be well-suited for modeling extremes of complex environmental processes, but in many applications its likelihood function is intractable and inference must be based on a composite…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-16 Emeric Thibaud , Juha Aalto , Daniel S. Cooley , Anthony C. Davison , Juha Heikkinen

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-21 Abhra Sarkar , David B. Dunson

This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-19 Ragnhild C. Noven , Almut E. D. Veraart , Axel Gandy

Non-stationary extremal dependence, whereby the relationship between the extremes of multiple variables evolves over time, is commonly observed in many environmental and financial data sets. However, most multivariate extreme value models…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 C. J. R. Murphy-Barltrop , J. L. Wadsworth , M. de Carvalho , B. D. Youngman

We introduce a novel statistical significance-based approach for clustering hierarchical data using semi-parametric linear mixed-effects models designed for responses with laws in the exponential family (e.g., Poisson and Bernoulli). Within…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Alessandra Ragni , Chiara Masci , Francesca Ieva , Anna Maria Paganoni

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-12 Enkelejd Hashorva , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

Mixture models provide a flexible representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. From the Bayesian point of view, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods provide a way to draw inferences from these models. In particular,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-06 Carolina Valani Cavalcante , Kelly Cristina Mota Gonçalves

A model-based approach is developed for clustering categorical data with no natural ordering. The proposed method exploits the Hamming distance to define a family of probability mass functions to model the data. The elements of this family…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Raffaele Argiento , Edoardo Filippi-Mazzola , Lucia Paci

Risk management is particularly concerned with extreme events, but analysing these events is often hindered by the scarcity of data, especially in a multivariate context. This data scarcity complicates risk management efforts. Various tools…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-15 Nisrine Madhar , Juliette Legrand , Maud Thomas

In this work, we develop a constructive modeling framework for extreme threshold exceedances in repeated observations of spatial fields, based on general product mixtures of random fields possessing light or heavy-tailed margins and various…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-20 Rishikesh Yadav , Raphaël Huser , Thomas Opitz

We introduce a dependent Bayesian nonparametric model for the probabilistic modeling of membership of subgroups in a community based on partially replicated data. The focus here is on species-by-site data, i.e. community data where…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-18 Julyan Arbel , Kerrie Mengersen , Judith Rousseau

Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Anna Kiriliouk , Philippe Naveau

Likelihood-free approaches are appealing for performing inference on complex dependence models, either because it is not possible to formulate a likelihood function, or its evaluation is very computationally costly. This is the case for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Lídia M. André , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Raphaël Huser

In recent years, conditional copulas, that allow dependence between variables to vary according to the values of one or more covariates, have attracted increasing attention. In high dimension, vine copulas offer greater flexibility compared…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-24 Rosario Barone , Luciana Dalla Valle

Capturing the dependence structure of multivariate extreme events is a major concern in many fields involving the management of risks stemming from multiple sources, e.g. portfolio monitoring, insurance, environmental risk management and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-15 Nicolas Goix , Anne Sabourin , Stéphan Clémençon

Models for categorical sequences typically assume exchangeable or first-order dependent sequence elements. These are common assumptions, for example, in models of computer malware traces and protein sequences. Although such simplifying…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-17 Daniyar Ghani , Nicholas A. Heard , Francesco Sanna Passino

Statistical methods for inference on spatial extremes of large datasets are yet to be developed. Motivated by standard dimension reduction techniques used in spatial statistics, we propose an approach based on empirical basis functions to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-02 Samuel A. Morris , Brian J. Reich , Emeric Thibaud

We focus on improving the accuracy of an approximate model of a multiscale dynamical system that uses a set of parameter-dependent terms to account for the effects of unresolved or neglected dynamics on resolved scales. We start by…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-06-26 Balasubramanya T. Nadiga , Chiyu Jiang , Daniel Livescu

The $k$-means clustering algorithm and its variant, the spherical $k$-means clustering, are among the most important and popular methods in unsupervised learning and pattern detection. In this paper, we explore how the spherical $k$-means…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-28 Anja Janßen , Phyllis Wan

Many application domains such as ecology or genomics have to deal with multivariate non Gaussian observations. A typical example is the joint observation of the respective abundances of a set of species in a series of sites, aiming to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-01 Julien Chiquet , Mahendra Mariadassou , Stéphane Robin