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Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…

Applications · Statistics 2023-02-02 X. Zhu , M. Broccardo , B. Sudret

We consider an unconstrained continuous optimization problem where, in each iteration, gradient estimates may be arbitrarily corrupted with a probability greater than 1/2. Additionally, function value estimates may exhibit heavy-tailed…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Katya Scheinberg , Miaolan Xie

The objective of this work is to quantify the uncertainty in probability of failure estimates resulting from incomplete knowledge of the probability distributions for the input random variables. We propose a framework that couples the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Dimitris G. Giovanis , Michael Shields

Uncertainty quantification seeks to provide a quantitative means to understand complex systems that are impacted by parametric uncertainty. The polynomial chaos method is a computational approach to solve stochastic partial differential…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-27 Melvin Leok , Gautam Wilkins

We present an HSIC-based approach for global sensitivity analysis of broad classes of models with correlated and possibly function-valued inputs and outputs. To this end, we define the total HSIC sensitivity index: a bounded, interpretable,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Troy Larsen , Alen Alexanderian

Causal inference with observational studies often suffers from unmeasured confounding, yielding biased estimators based on the unconfoundedness assumption. Sensitivity analysis assesses how the causal conclusions change with respect to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-01 Sizhu Lu , Peng Ding

Uncertainty quantification is a primary challenge for reliable modeling and simulation of complex stochastic dynamics. Such problems are typically plagued with incomplete information that may enter as uncertainty in the model parameters, or…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-15 Paul Dupuis , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Yannis Pantazis , Petr Plechac

Current constraints on models of galaxy evolution rely on morphometric catalogs extracted from multi-band photometric surveys. However, these catalogs are altered by selection effects that are difficult to model, that correlate in non…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-09-06 Sébastien Carassou , Valérie de Lapparent , Emmanuel Bertin , Damien Le Borgne

This paper proposes a general framework to estimate coefficients of generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) used in uncertainty quantification via rotational sparse approximation. In particular, we aim to identify a rotation matrix such that the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-20 Mengqi Hu , Yifei Lou , Xiu Yang

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) can provide rich information for controlling output uncertainty. In practical applications, segmented models are commonly used to describe an abrupt model change. For segmented models, the complicated…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-12 Shi-Shun Chen , Xiao-Yang Li

Deep learning algorithms have recently shown to be a successful tool in estimating parameters of statistical models for which simulation is easy, but likelihood computation is challenging. But the success of these approaches depends on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-20 Amanda Lenzi , Haavard Rue

Reaction-diffusion models are widely used to study spatially-extended chemical reaction systems. In order to understand how the dynamics of a reaction-diffusion model are affected by changes in its input parameters, efficient methods for…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2017-03-08 Christopher Lester , Christian A. Yates , Ruth E. Baker

In this paper, we study sensitivity indices for independent groups of variables and we look at the particular case of block-additive models. We show in this case that most of the Sobol indices are equal to zero and that Shapley effects can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-12 Baptiste Broto , François Bachoc , Marine Depecker , Jean-Marc Martinez

We give tight upper and lower bounds of the cardinality of the index sets of certain hyperbolic crosses which reflect mixed Sobolev-Korobov-type smoothness and mixed Sobolev-analytic-type smoothness in the infinite-dimensional case where…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-11-10 Dinh Dũng , Michael Griebel

This paper introduces a new constraint domain for reasoning about data with uncertainty. It extends convex modeling with the notion of p-box to gain additional quantifiable information on the data whereabouts. Unlike existing approaches,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2014-06-25 Aya Saad , Thom Fruehwirth , Carmen Gervet

Probabilistic smoothing is a standard tool for global optimization, but existing methods rely on Gaussian kernels and specific transforms, often resulting in strong hyperparameter sensitivity and limited robustness. We propose a general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Kukyoung Jang , Taehyun Cho , Junrui Zhang , Ping Xu , Kyungjae Lee

In uncertainty quantification, variance-based global sensitivity analysis quantitatively determines the effect of each input random variable on the output by partitioning the total output variance into contributions from each input.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Dongjin Lee , Elle Lavichant , Boris Kramer

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been used in many real-world engineering applications to quantify how the uncertainty of an output is propagated from inputs. PCEs for models with independent inputs have been extensively explored in…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-06-02 Zhanlin Liu , Youngjun Choe

Global sensitivity analysis is often impracticable for complex and time demanding numerical models, as it requires a large number of runs. The reduced-basis approach provides a way to replace the original model by a much faster to run code.…

Computation · Statistics 2011-02-25 Alexandre Janon , Maëlle Nodet , Clémentine Prieur

Post-hoc explanation methods have become a critical tool for understanding black-box classifiers in high-stakes applications. However, high-performing classifiers are often highly nonlinear and can exhibit complex behavior around the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Davin Hill , Aria Masoomi , Max Torop , Sandesh Ghimire , Jennifer Dy