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For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Maxime Faymonville , Carsten Jentsch , Efstathios Paparoditis

Robust inference for stochastic dynamical systems is often hampered by sparse sampling and the absence of closed-form likelihoods. We introduce a Monte Carlo path-inference framework that leverages full-path statistics and bridge processes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-10-07 Javier Aguilar , Miguel A. Muñoz , Sandro Azaele

Given $n$ noisy samples with $p$ dimensions, where $n \ll p$, we show that the multi-step thresholding procedure based on the Lasso -- we call it the {\it Thresholded Lasso}, can accurately estimate a sparse vector $\beta \in {\mathbb R}^p$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Shuheng Zhou

A novel IV estimation method, that we term Locally Trimmed LS (LTLS), is developed which yields estimators with (mixed) Gaussian limit distributions in situations where the data may be weakly or strongly persistent. In particular, we allow…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-24 Zhishui Hu , Ioannis Kasparis , Qiying Wang

Transductive methods are useful in prediction problems when the training dataset is composed of a large number of unlabeled observations and a smaller number of labeled observations. In this paper, we propose an approach for developing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-06-16 Pierre Alquier , Mohamed Hebiri

Stochastic programming models can lead to very large-scale optimization problems for which it may be impossible to enumerate all possible scenarios. In such cases, one adopts a sampling-based solution methodology in which case the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-20 Shuotao Diao , Suvrajeet Sen

We develop a uniform inference theory for high-dimensional slope parameters in threshold regression models, allowing for either cross-sectional or time series data. We first establish oracle inequalities for prediction errors, and L1…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-16 Jiatong Li , Hongqiang Yan

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inference when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We propose an annealed importance sampling procedure for estimating expectations with respect to the posterior.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-26 M. -N. Tran , C. Strickland , M. K. Pitt , R. Kohn

This paper considers properties of an optimization based sampler for targeting the posterior distribution when the likelihood is intractable and auxiliary statistics are used to summarize information in the data. Our reverse sampler…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-02 Jean-Jacques Forneron , Serena Ng

In supervised learning, automatically assessing the quality of the labels before any learning takes place remains an open research question. In certain particular cases, hypothesis testing procedures have been proposed to assess whether a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Weisong Yang , Rafael Poyiadzi , Niall Twomey , Raul Santos Rodriguez

Inference after model selection presents computational challenges when dealing with intractable conditional distributions. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a common method for sampling from these distributions, but its slow convergence…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-22 Sifan Liu

LASSO inflicts shrinkage bias on estimated coefficients, which undermines asymptotic normality and invalidates standard inferential procedures based on the t-statistic. Given cross sectional data, the desparsified LASSO has emerged as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-21 Zhan Gao , Ji Hyung Lee , Ziwei Mei , Zhentao Shi

We present new results for consistency of maximum likelihood estimators with a focus on multivariate mixed models. Our theory builds on the idea of using subsets of the full data to establish consistency of estimators based on the full…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-13 Karl Oskar Ekvall , Galin L. Jones

Monte Carlo methods to evaluate and maximize the likelihood function enable the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, facilitating scientific investigation using models for which the likelihood function is intractable.…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-13 Edward L. Ionides , Carles Breto , Joonha Park , Richard A. Smith , Aaron A. King

The Lasso is a method for high-dimensional regression, which is now commonly used when the number of covariates $p$ is of the same order or larger than the number of observations $n$. Classical asymptotic normality theory does not apply to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-20 Michael Celentano , Andrea Montanari , Yuting Wei

We consider a high-dimensional regression model with a possible change-point due to a covariate threshold and develop the Lasso estimator of regression coefficients as well as the threshold parameter. Our Lasso estimator not only selects…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-23 Sokbae Lee , Myung Hwan Seo , Youngki Shin

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-01 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

A significant hurdle for analyzing large sample data is the lack of effective statistical computing and inference methods. An emerging powerful approach for analyzing large sample data is subsampling, by which one takes a random subsample…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-24 Rong Zhu , Ping Ma , Michael W. Mahoney , Bin Yu

This paper obtains asymptotic results for parametric inference using prediction-based estimating functions when the data are high frequency observations of a diffusion process with an infinite time horizon. Specifically, the data are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-27 Emil S. Jørgensen , Michael Sørensen

In the context of a species sampling problem we discuss a non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator for the underlying probability mass function. The estimator is known in the computer science literature as the high profile estimator. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-12 Dragi Anevski , Richard D. Gill , Stefan Zohren