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In many science and industry settings, a central challenge is designing experiments under time and budget constraints. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) is a paradigm to pick maximally informative designs that has been widely…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-02 Roubing Tang , Sabina J. Sloman , Samuel Kaski

Optimal design of a Phase I cancer trial can be formulated as a stochastic optimization problem. By making use of recent advances in approximate dynamic programming to tackle the problem, we develop an approximation of the Bayesian optimal…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-01 Jay Bartroff , Tze Leung Lai

This paper considers the optimal adaptive allocation of measurement effort for identifying the best among a finite set of options or designs. An experimenter sequentially chooses designs to measure and observes noisy signals of their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-11 Daniel Russo

The construction of decision-theoretic Bayesian designs for realistically-complex nonlinear models is computationally challenging, as it requires the optimization of analytically intractable expected utility functions over high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-01 Antony Overstall , David Woods

The explicit constraint force method (ECFM) was recently introduced as a novel formulation of the physics-informed solution reconstruction problem, and was subsequently extended to inverse problems. In both solution reconstruction and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-09 Conor Rowan

One of the well-known challenges in optimal experimental design is how to efficiently estimate the nested integrations of the expected information gain. The Gaussian approximation and associated importance sampling have been shown to be…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-17 Quan Long

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-01-20 Gerhard Hummer , Jürgen Köfinger

The increasing recognition of the association between adverse human health conditions and many environmental substances as well as processes has led to the need to monitor them. An important problem that arises in environmental statistics…

Applications · Statistics 2020-02-05 Yu Wang , Nhu D. Le , James V. Zidek

Gathering labeled data to train well-performing machine learning models is one of the critical challenges in many applications. Active learning aims at reducing the labeling costs by an efficient and effective allocation of costly labeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Daniel Kottke , Marek Herde , Christoph Sandrock , Denis Huseljic , Georg Krempl , Bernhard Sick

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

Bayesian optimization (BO) has shown impressive results in a variety of applications within low-to-moderate dimensional Euclidean spaces. However, extending BO to high-dimensional settings remains a significant challenge. We address this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-11 Shouri Hu , Jiawei Li , Zhibo Cai

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Mengwu Guo , Shane A. McQuarrie , Karen E. Willcox

This paper shows how the Bayesian network paradigm can be used in order to solve combinatorial optimization problems. To do it some methods of structure learning from data and simulation of Bayesian networks are inserted inside Estimation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Pedro Larrañaga , Ramon Etxeberria , Jose A. Lozano , Jose M. Pena

To design Bayesian studies, criteria for the operating characteristics of posterior analyses - such as power and the type I error rate - are often assessed by estimating sampling distributions of posterior probabilities via simulation. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-17 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

We apply optimum experimental design (OED) to organic semiconductors modeled by the extended Gaussian disorder model (EGDM) which was developed by Pasveer et al. We present an extended Gummel method to decouple the corresponding system of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-12 Christoph Karl Felix Weiler , Stefan Körkel

This paper tackles optimal sensor placement for Bayesian linear inverse problems, a popular version of the more general Optimal Experimental Design (OED) problem, using the D-optimality criterion. This is done by establishing connections…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Srinivas Eswar , Vishwas Rao , Arvind K. Saibaba

Optimum parameter estimation methods require knowledge of a parametric probability density that statistically describes the available observations. In this work we examine Bayesian and non-Bayesian parameter estimation problems under a…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-01 George V. Moustakides

This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Yuan Liao , Wenxin Jiang

We consider a class of convex optimization problems over the simplex of probability measures. Our framework comprises optimal experimental design (OED) problems, in which the measure over the design space indicates which experiments are…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-20 Roland Herzog , Eric Legler

Bayesian Experimental Design (BED), which aims to find the optimal experimental conditions for Bayesian inference, is usually posed as to optimize the expected information gain (EIG). The gradient information is often needed for efficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-14 Ziqiao Ao , Jinglai Li