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The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used probabilistic machine learning method with implicit uncertainty characterization for stochastic function approximation, stochastic modeling, and analyzing real-world measurements of nonlinear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-14 Mark D. Risser , Marcus M. Noack , Hengrui Luo , Ronald Pandolfi

Gaussian processes are arguably the most important class of spatiotemporal models within machine learning. They encode prior information about the modeled function and can be used for exact or approximate Bayesian learning. In many…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful probabilistic models that define flexible priors over functions, offering strong interpretability and uncertainty quantification. However, GP models often rely on simple, stationary kernels which can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Nima Negarandeh , Carlos Mora , Ramin Bostanabad

The specification of a covariance function is of paramount importance when employing Gaussian process models, but the requirement of positive definiteness severely limits those used in practice. Designing flexible stationary covariance…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-01 Paul G. Beckman , Christopher J. Geoga

Learning precise surrogate models of complex computer simulations and physical machines often require long-lasting or expensive experiments. Furthermore, the modeled physical dependencies exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-20 Matthias Bitzer , Mona Meister , Christoph Zimmer

In spatial statistics, kriging models are often designed using a stationary covariance structure; this translation-invariance produces models which have numerous favorable properties. This assumption can be limiting, though, in…

Computation · Statistics 2018-12-04 Michael McCourt , Gregory Fasshauer , David Kozak

The expressive power of Gaussian processes depends heavily on the choice of kernel. In this work we propose the novel harmonizable mixture kernel (HMK), a family of expressive, interpretable, non-stationary kernels derived from mixture…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-15 Zheyang Shen , Markus Heinonen , Samuel Kaski

In this paper we propose a generalized Gaussian process concurrent regression model for functional data where the functional response variable has a binomial, Poisson or other non-Gaussian distribution from an exponential family while the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-03 Bo Wang , Jian Qing Shi

Gaussian processes provide a flexible, non-parametric framework for the approximation of functions in high-dimensional spaces. The covariance kernel is the main engine of Gaussian processes, incorporating correlations that underpin the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-20 Dionissios T. Hristopulos

Gaussian processes are flexible function approximators, with inductive biases controlled by a covariance kernel. Learning the kernel is the key to representation learning and strong predictive performance. In this paper, we develop…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Gregory W. Benton , Wesley J. Maddox , Jayson P. Salkey , Julio Albinati , Andrew Gordon Wilson

The spectral density function describes the second-order properties of a stationary stochastic process on $\mathbb{R}^d$. This paper considers the nonparametric estimation of the spectral density of a continuous-time stochastic process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-07 Rafail Kartsioukas , Stilian Stoev , Tailen Hsing

Marginalising over families of Gaussian Process kernels produces flexible model classes with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Existing approaches require likelihood evaluations of many kernels, rendering them prohibitively expensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-16 Saad Hamid , Sebastian Schulze , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

In this paper, we study nonparametric models allowing for locally stationary regressors and a regression function that changes smoothly over time. These models are a natural extension of time series models with time-varying coefficients. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-19 Michael Vogt

Many scientific problems involve data exhibiting both temporal and cross-sectional dependencies. While linear dependencies have been extensively studied, the theoretical analysis of regression estimators under nonlinear dependencies remains…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-27 Marie-Christine Düker , Adam Waterbury

Gaussian processes are arguably the most important class of spatiotemporal models within machine learning. They encode prior information about the modeled function and can be used for exact or approximate Bayesian learning. In many…

The density function of the limiting spectral distribution of general sample covariance matrices is usually unknown. We propose to use kernel estimators which are proved to be consistent. A simulation study is also conducted to show the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-15 Bing-Yi Jing , Guangming Pan , Qi-Man Shao , Wang Zhou

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

Kernel design for Multi-output Gaussian Processes (MOGP) has received increased attention recently. In particular, the Multi-Output Spectral Mixture kernel (MOSM) arXiv:1709.01298 approach has been praised as a general model in the sense…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-21 Matías Altamirano , Felipe Tobar

The focus of this work is the convergence of non-stationary and deep Gaussian process regression. More precisely, we follow a Bayesian approach to regression or interpolation, where the prior placed on the unknown function $f$ is a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Conor Osborne , Aretha L. Teckentrup

This paper considers a class of nonparametric autoregressive models with nonstationarity. We propose a nonparametric kernel test for the conditional mean and then establish an asymptotic distribution of the proposed test. Both the setting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Jiti Gao , Maxwell King , Zudi Lu , Dag Tjøstheim