Related papers: Stratification as a general variance reduction met…

Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Model-based deep reinforcement learning has achieved success in various domains that require high sample efficiencies, such as Go and robotics. However, there are some remaining issues, such as planning efficient explorations to learn more…

We demonstrate how a prior assumption of smoothness can be used to enhance the reconstruction of free energy profiles from multiple umbrella sampling simulations using the Bayesian Gaussian process regression approach. The method we derive…

This paper investigates the use of multiple directions of stratification as a variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulations of path-dependent options driven by Gaussian vectors. The precision of the method depends on the choice…

The effective sample size (ESS) is widely used in sample-based simulation methods for assessing the quality of a Monte Carlo approximation of a given distribution and of related integrals. In this paper, we revisit the approximation of the…

Extracting low-dimensional summary statistics from large datasets is essential for efficient (likelihood-free) inference. We characterize three different classes of summaries and demonstrate their importance for correctly analyzing…

Cross-Entropy Method (CEM) is commonly used for planning in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) where a centralized approach is typically utilized to update the sampling distribution based on only the top-$k$ operation's results on…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are standard tools for inferring parameters of complex models when the likelihood function is analytically intractable. A popular approach to improving the poor acceptance rate of the basic…

The rare-event sampling problem has long been the central limiting factor in molecular dynamics (MD), especially in biomolecular simulation. Recently, diffusion models such as BioEmu have emerged as powerful equilibrium samplers that…

Performance-based engineering for natural hazards facilitates the design and appraisal of structures with rigorous evaluation of their uncertain structural behavior under potentially extreme stochastic loads expressed in terms of failure…

The inefficiency of using an unbiased estimator in a Monte Carlo procedure can be quantified using an inefficiency constant, equal to the product of the variance of the estimator and its mean computational cost. We develop methods for…

We present a new version of the truncated harmonic mean estimator (THAMES) for univariate or multivariate mixture models. The estimator computes the marginal likelihood from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples, is consistent,…

Employing Bayesian inference to calibrate constitutive model parameters has grown substantially in recent years. Among the available techniques, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling remains one of the most widely used approaches for…

Because of their multimodality, mixture posterior distributions are difficult to sample with standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We propose a strategy to enhance the sampling of MCMC in this context, using a biasing procedure…

The edge partition model (EPM) is a generative model for extracting an overlapping community structure from static graph-structured data. In the EPM, the gamma process (GaP) prior is adopted to infer the appropriate number of latent…

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with…

As of 2005, sampling has been incorporated in all major database systems. While efficient sampling techniques are realizable, determining the accuracy of an estimate obtained from the sample is still an unresolved problem. In this paper, we…

A general adaptive approach rooted in stratified sampling (SS) is proposed for sample-based uncertainty quantification (UQ). To motivate its use in this context the space-filling, orthogonality, and projective properties of SS are compared…

In this paper, we propose a new stochastic optimization algorithm for Bayesian inference based on multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. In Bayesian statistics, biased estimators of the model evidence have been often used as stochastic…