Related papers: Note on Evolution and Forecasting of Requirements:…
We analyst in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems (see Phys. Rev. Lett . vol. 113, 264102 (2014)) by application to the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary…
The requirements roadmap concept is introduced as a solution to the problem of the requirements engineering of adaptive systems. The concept requires a new general definition of the requirements problem which allows for quantitative…
Ecological systems are emergent features of ecological and adaptive dynamics of a community of interacting species. By natural selection through the abiotic environment and by co-adaptation within the community, species evolve, thereby…
Topological phases of matter are often understood and predicted with the help of crystal symmetries, although they don't rely on them to exist. In this chapter we review how topological phases have been recently shown to emerge in amorphous…
We propose a dynamical mechanism for a scale dependent error growth rate, by the introduction of a class of hierarchical models. The coupling of time scales and length scales is motivated by atmospheric dynamics. This model class can be…
The contemporary development of hardware components is a prerequisite for increasing the concentration of computing power. System software is developing at a much slower pace. To use available resources efficiently modeling is required.…
Highly nonlinear behavior of a system of discrete sites on a lattice is observed when a specific feedback loop is introduced into models employing coupled map lattices, quantum cellular automata, or the real-valued analogues of the latter.…
We describe a simple adaptive network of coupled chaotic maps. The network reaches a stationary state (frozen topology) for all values of the coupling parameter, although the dynamics of the maps at the nodes of the network can be…
Traditionally, Probability theory was dealing with limit theorems where 'limit" means that time tends to infinity. Questions about finite time dynamics (evolution) were always considered as, although important for practical applications,…
As complex software and systems development projects need models as an important planning, structuring and development technique, models now face issues resolved for software earlier: models need to be versioned, differences captured,…
We present an analytical model to study the role of expectation feedbacks and overlapping portfolios on systemic stability of financial systems. Building on [Corsi et al., 2016], we model a set of financial institutions having Value at Risk…
The co-evolution of structure and dynamics, known as adaptivity, is a fundamental property in various systems and drives diverse emergent behaviors. However, the adaptivity in previous works is primarily stemmed from pairwise situations,…
The predictability problem for systems with different characteristic time scales is investigated. It is shown that even in simple chaotic dynamical systems, the leading Lyapunov exponent is not sufficient to estimate the predictability…
Intermittency is a common and challenging problem in demand forecasting. We introduce a new, unified framework for building intermittent demand forecasting models, which incorporates and allows to generalize existing methods in several…
Non-uniform rates of morphological evolution and evolutionary increases in organismal complexity, captured in metaphors like "adaptive zones", "punctuated equilibrium" and "blunderbuss patterns", require more elaborate explanations than a…
Complementarity is one of the main features underlying the interactions in biological and biochemical systems. Inspired by those systems we propose a model for the dynamical evolution of a system composed by agents that interact due to…
In the paper, frameworks for electronic shopping of composite (modular) products are described: (a) multicriteria selection (product is considered as a whole system, it is a traditional approach), (b) combinatorial synthesis (composition)…
An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…
Embedded systems are becoming more in demand to work in dynamic and uncertain environments, and being confined to the strong requirements of real-time. Conventional static scheduling models usually cannot cope with runtime modification in…
Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series…