Related papers: Bayesian Nonparametric Poisson-Process Allocation …

We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…

We consider Bayesian inference problems with computationally intensive likelihood functions. We propose a Gaussian process (GP) based method to approximate the joint distribution of the unknown parameters and the data. In particular, we…

We propose a new Bayesian nonparametric prior for latent feature models, which we call the convergent Indian buffet process (CIBP). We show that under the CIBP, the number of latent features is distributed as a Poisson distribution with the…

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian non-parametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This paper provides a gentle introduction to…

We develop a (nearly) unbiased particle filtering algorithm for a specific class of continuous-time state-space models, such that (a) the latent process $X_t$ is a linear Gaussian diffusion; and (b) the observations arise from a Poisson…

As machine learning systems get widely adopted for high-stake decisions, quantifying uncertainty over predictions becomes crucial. While modern neural networks are making remarkable gains in terms of predictive accuracy, characterizing…

A large amount of observational data has been accumulated in various fields in recent times, and there is a growing need to estimate the generating processes of these data. A linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM) based on the…

We present a non-parametric Bayesian latent variable model capable of learning dependency structures across dimensions in a multivariate setting. Our approach is based on flexible Gaussian process priors for the generative mappings and…

A plethora of networks is being collected in a growing number of fields, including disease transmission, international relations, social interactions, and others. As data streams continue to grow, the complexity associated with these highly…

We develop an automated variational method for inference in models with Gaussian process (GP) priors and general likelihoods. The method supports multiple outputs and multiple latent functions and does not require detailed knowledge of the…

Branching Time Active Inference (Champion et al., 2021b,a) is a framework proposing to look at planning as a form of Bayesian model expansion. Its root can be found in Active Inference (Friston et al., 2016; Da Costa et al., 2020; Champion…

A temporal point process is a stochastic process that predicts which type of events is likely to happen and when the event will occur given a history of a sequence of events. There are various examples of occurrence dynamics in the daily…

Graphs are ubiquitous in modelling relational structures. Recent endeavours in machine learning for graph-structured data have led to many architectures and learning algorithms. However, the graph used by these algorithms is often…

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric…

This paper introduces a method for the nonparametric Bayesian learning of nonlinear operators, through the use of the Volterra series with kernels represented using Gaussian processes (GPs), which we term the nonparametric Volterra kernels…

Cascades of Poisson processes are probabilistic models for spatio-temporal phenomena in which (i) previous events may trigger subsequent events, and (ii) both the background and triggering processes are conditionally Poisson. Such phenomena…

This paper introduces a new methodology to analyse bipartite and unipartite networks with nonnegative edge values. The proposed approach combines and adapts a number of ideas from the literature on latent variable network models. The…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our approach is based on the discovery of a set of latent, shared dynamical behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the…

Hierarchical statistical models are widely employed in information science and data engineering. The models consist of two types of variables: observable variables that represent the given data and latent variables for the unobservable…