Related papers: An evidential Markov decision making model
We explore the interplay between random and deterministic phenomena using a representation of uncertainty based on the measure-theoretic concept of outer measure. The meaning of the analogues of different probabilistic concepts is…
This paper concerns the use of the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm for inference in partially observed diffusion processes. In this context, a well known problem is that all except a few diffusion processes lack closed-form…
This article proposes a novel collective decision making scheme to solve the multi-agent drift-diffusion-model problem with the help of spiking neural networks. The exponential integrate-and-fire model is used here to capture the individual…
Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for estimating parameters of statistical models. However, EM, which is an iterative algorithm based on the maximum likelihood principle, is generally only guaranteed to find…
Data based judgments go into artificial intelligence applications but they undergo paradoxical reversal when seemingly unnecessary additional data is provided. Examples of this are Simpson's reversal and the disjunction effect where the…
The principle that rational agents should maximize expected utility or choiceworthiness is intuitively plausible in many ordinary cases of decision-making under uncertainty. But it is less plausible in cases of extreme, low-probability risk…
This work reveals an evidential signal that emerges from the uncertainty value in Evidential Deep Learning (EDL). EDL is one example of a class of uncertainty-aware deep learning approaches designed to provide confidence (or epistemic…
The stochastic theory of relativistic quantum mechanics presented here is modelled on the one that has been proposed previously and that was claimed to be a promising substitute to the orthodox theory in the non-relativistic domain. So it…
This work is an enquiry into the circumstances under which entropy methods can give an answer to the questions of both quantum separability and classical correlations of a composite state. Several entropy functionals are employed to examine…
We propose a method to infer causal structures containing both discrete and continuous variables. The idea is to select causal hypotheses for which the conditional density of every variable, given its causes, becomes smooth. We define a…
Markov decision processes (MDPs) are the defacto frame-work for sequential decision making in the presence ofstochastic uncertainty. A classical optimization criterion forMDPs is to maximize the expected discounted-sum pay-off, which…
We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…
We consider the problem of minimizing a certainty equivalent of the total or discounted cost over a finite and an infinite time horizon which is generated by a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). The certainty equivalent…
Binary decision diagrams can compactly represent vast sets of states, mitigating the state space explosion problem in model checking. Probabilistic systems, however, require multi-terminal diagrams storing rational numbers. They are…
We revisit Zadeh's notion of "evidence of the second kind" and show that it provides the foundation for a general theory of epistemic random fuzzy sets, which generalizes both the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and possibility…
In this paper we introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. Using the inverse-size expansion of…
The predicted Standard Model (SM) electric dipole moments (EDMs) of electrons and quarks are tiny, providing an important window to observe new physics. Theories beyond the SM typically allow relatively large EDMs. The EDMs depend on the…
The common cause principle for two random variables $A$ and $B$ is examined in the case of causal insufficiency, when their common cause $C$ is known to exist, but only the joint probability of $A$ and $B$ is observed. As a result, $C$…
We collect different examples reflect Bolzman--Jaynes theory of maximum entropy principle. This principle proposed that equillibrium of macrosystem (most probable macrostate of the invariant measure of macrosystem) can be find as a solution…
The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is a versatile tool for model parameter estimation in latent data models. When processing large data sets or data stream however, EM becomes intractable since it requires the whole data set to be…