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Influence maximization in networks is a central problem in machine learning and causal inference, where an intervention on a subset of individuals triggers a diffusion process through the network. Existing approaches typically optimize…
A new method is proposed for exploiting causal independencies in exact Bayesian network inference. A Bayesian network can be viewed as representing a factorization of a joint probability into the multiplication of a set of conditional…
We propose a machine-learning tool that yields causal inference on text in randomized trials. Based on a simple econometric framework in which text may capture outcomes of interest, our procedure addresses three questions: First, is the…
A probabilistic method of reasoning under uncertainty is proposed based on the principle of Minimum Cross Entropy (MCE) and concept of Recursive Causal Model (RCM). The dependency and correlations among the variables are described in a…
Large language models (LLMs) enable researchers to analyze text at unprecedented scale and minimal cost. Researchers can now revisit old questions and tackle novel ones with rich data. We provide an econometric framework for realizing this…
The instrumental variables (IVs) method is a leading empirical strategy for causal inference. Finding IVs is a heuristic and creative process, and justifying its validity -- especially exclusion restrictions -- is largely rhetorical. We…
Machine Learning explainability techniques have been proposed as a means of `explaining' or interrogating a model in order to understand why a particular decision or prediction has been made. Such an ability is especially important at a…
Methodologies to infer financial networks from the price series of speculative assets vary, however, they generally involve bivariate or multivariate predictive modelling to reveal causal and correlational structures within the time series…
Interval-censored multi-state data arise in many studies of chronic diseases, where the health status of a subject can be characterized by a finite number of disease states and the transition between any two states is only known to occur…
Learning representations that capture the underlying data generating process is a key problem for data efficient and robust use of neural networks. One key property for robustness which the learned representation should capture and which…
In this study, we introduce a novel methodological framework called Bayesian Penalized Empirical Likelihood (BPEL), designed to address the computational challenges inherent in empirical likelihood (EL) approaches. Our approach has two…
In physics we often use very simple models to describe systems with many degrees of freedom, but it is not clear why or how this success can be transferred to the more complex biological context. We consider models for the joint…
To construct models of large, multivariate complex systems, such as those in biology, one needs to constrain which variables are allowed to interact. This can be viewed as detecting "local" structures among the variables. In the context of…
Causal learning is the cognitive process of developing the capability of making causal inferences based on available information, often guided by normative principles. This process is prone to errors and biases, such as the illusion of…
Energy-based models (EBMs) are powerful probabilistic models, but suffer from intractable sampling and density evaluation due to the partition function. As a result, inference in EBMs relies on approximate sampling algorithms, leading to a…
Inverse Ising inference allows pairwise interactions of complex binary systems to be reconstructed from empirical correlations. Typical estimators used for this inference, such as Pseudo-likelihood maximization (PLM), are biased. Using the…
Models often need to be constrained to a certain size for them to be considered interpretable. For example, a decision tree of depth 5 is much easier to understand than one of depth 50. Limiting model size, however, often reduces accuracy.…
We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…
Model-based reinforcement learning promises strong sample efficiency but often underperforms in practice due to compounding model error, unimodal world models that average over multi-modal dynamics, and overconfident predictions that bias…
Generalising well in supervised learning tasks relies on correctly extrapolating the training data to a large region of the input space. One way to achieve this is to constrain the predictions to be invariant to transformations on the input…