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We generalize a famous tail Doob's inequality, relative two non-negative random variables, arising in the martingale theory, in two directions: on the more general source data and on the random variables belonging to the so-called Grand…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-03 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

We derive upper bounds for probabilities of the form $P(g(\mathbf{X})\geq t)$ using the southwest boundary (recently introduced in our previous work) $\partial_{\mathrm{SW}} Q(g^{-1}[t,\infty))$, where $Q$ is a reflection to the first…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Stephen Jordan Harrison

Let $X_1,\dots,X_n$ be independent normal random variables with $X_i\sim N(\mu_i,\sigma_i^2)$, and set $Z=\prod_{i=1}^n X_i$. We derive asymptotic approximations for the right tail probability $\mathbb{P}(Z>x)$ as $x\to\infty$. When at…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-08 Džiugas Chvoinikov , Jonas Šiaulys

In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-04 Jeffrey F. Collamore , Guoqing Diao , Anand N. Vidyashankar

We obtain first decay rates of probabilities of tails of multivariate polynomials built on independent random variables with heavy tails. Then we derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of the form $\sum_{Nt\geq n\geq…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-08 Yuri Kifer , S. R. S. Varadhan

Concentration inequalities are obtained on Poisson space, for random functionals with finite or infinite variance. In particular, dimension free tail estimates and exponential integrability results are given for the Euclidean norm of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 J. C. Breton , C. Houdré , N. Privault

We deduce the non-asymptotical (bilateral) estimates for moment inequalities for multiple sums of non-negative (more precisely, non-negative) independent random variables, on the other words, the well known U or V-statistics. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-24 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

This work develops a methodology for analyzing large-deviation lower tails associated with geometric functionals computed on a homogeneous Poisson point process. The technique applies to characteristics expressed in terms of stabilizing…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-15 Christian Hirsch , Benedikt Jahnel , András Tóbiás

We establish sharp tail asymptotics for component-wise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-28 Remco van der Hofstad , Harsha Honnappa

We consider the problem of finding the optimal upper bound for the tail probability of a sum of $k$ nonnegative, independent and identically distributed random variables with given mean $x$. For $k=1$ the answer is given by Markov's…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-12 Tomasz Łuczak , Katarzyna Mieczkowska , Matas Šileikis

We estimate up to universal constants tails of symmetric and totally asymmetric 1-dimensional $\alpha$-stable distributions in terms of functions of the parameters of these distributions. In particular, for values of $\alpha$ close to $2$…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-30 Witold M. Bednorz , Rafał M. Łochowski , Rafał Martynek

We study the tail asymptotics of the sum of two heavy-tailed random variables. The dependence structure is modeled by copulas with the so-called tail order property. Examples are presented to illustrate the approach. Further for each…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-15 Fan Yang , Yi Zhang

Exponential tail bounds for sums play an important role in statistics, but the example of the $t$-statistic shows that the exponential tail decay may be lost when population parameters need to be estimated from the data. However, it turns…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-22 Guenther Walther

This paper focuses on rare events associated with the tail probabilities of the extremal eigenvalues in the $\beta$-Jacobi ensemble, which plays a critical role in both multivariate statistical analysis and statistical physics. Under the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-26 Yutao Ma , Siyu Wang

We show that for Gaussian random SU(2)polynomials of a large degree $N$ the probability that there are no zeros in the disk of radius $r$ is less than $e^{-c_{1,r} N^2}$, and is also greater than $e^{-c_{2,r} N^2}$. Enroute to this result,…

Complex Variables · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Scott Zrebiec

In this paper we derive the tail asymptotics of the product of two dependent Weibull-type risks, which is of interest in various statistical and applied probability problems. Our results extend some recent findings of Schlueter and Fischer…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-12 E. Hashorva , Z. Weng

In this note a two sided bound on the tail probability of sums of independent, and either symmetric or nonnegative, random variables is obtained. We utilize a recent result by Lata{\l}a on bounds on moments of such sums. We also give a new…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Paweł Hitczenko , Stephen Montgomery-Smith

Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-11 Davide Lauria , Svetlozar T. Rachev , A. Alexandre Trindade

We present a new family of estimators of the Weibull tail-coefficient. The Weibull tail-coefficient is defined as the regular variation coefficient of the inverse failure rate function. Our estimators are based on a linear combination of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-31 Laurent Gardes , Stéphane Girard