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This paper is devoted to the prediction problem in extreme value theory. Our main result is an explicit expression of the regular conditional distribution of a max-stable (or max-infinitely divisible) process $\{\eta(t)\}_{t\in T}$ given…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-15 Clément Dombry , Frédéric Eyi-Minko

Aulbach et al. (2013) introduced a max-domain of attraction approach for extreme value theory in C[0,1] based on functional distribution functions, which is more general than the approach based on weak convergence in de Haan and Lin (2001).…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-12 Stefan Aulbach , Michael Falk , Martin Hofmann , Maximilian Zott

Search trees are fundamental data structures in computer science. We study functionals on random search trees that satisfy recurrence relations of a simple additive form. Many important functionals including the space requirement, internal…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Nevin Kapur

Taking the two-dimensional $\phi^4$ theory as an example, we numerically solve the deterministic equations of motion with random initial states. Short-time behavior of the solutions is systematically investigated. Assuming that the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 B. Zheng , M. Schulz , S. Trimper

Simulations are performed according to the Axelrod model of culture dissemination, with modified mechanism of repulsion. Previously, repulsion was considered by Radillo-Diaz et al (Phys. Rev. E 80 (2009) 066107) as dependent on a predefined…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-07-19 M. J. Krawczyk , K. Kulakowski

In classical extreme value theory probabilities of extreme events are estimated assuming all the components of a random vector to be in a domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. In contrast, the conditional extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-30 Bikramjit Das , Sidney I. Resnick

Maximum Entropy is a powerful concept that entails a sharp separation between relevant and irrelevant variables. It is typically invoked in inference, once an assumption is made on what the relevant variables are, in order to estimate a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-01-09 Luigi Gresele , Matteo Marsili

In this paper, we consider a stochastic recursive optimal control problem under model uncertainty. In this framework, the cost function is described by solutions of a family of backward stochastic differential equations. With the help of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-16 Mingshang Hu , Falei Wang

We consider the 3-dimensional massive Gross-Neveu model at finite temperature as an effective theory for strong interactions. Using the Matsubara imaginary time formalism, we derive a closed form for the renormalized $T$-dependent…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2010-12-01 F. C. Khanna , A. P. C. Malbouisson , J. M. C. Malbouisson , A. E. Santana

When complex systems are driven to extinction by some external factor, their non-stationary dynamics can present an intermittent behaviour between relative tranquility and burst of activity whose consequences are often catastrophic. To…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-21 Juan V Escobar , Isaac Pérez Castillo

We consider the recursive equation ``x(n+1)=A(n)x(n)'' where x(n+1) and x(n) are column vectors of size k and where A(n) is an irreducible random matrix of size k x k. The matrix-vector multiplication in the (max,+) algebra is defined by…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2007-07-26 Jean Mairesse

Muller's ratchet is a paradigmatic model for the accumulation of deleterious mutations in a population of finite size. A click of the ratchet occurs when all individuals with the least number of deleterious mutations are lost irreversibly…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-11-20 Jakob J. Metzger , Stephan Eule

We study one- and two-dimensional models which undergo a transition between active and absorbing phases. The transition point in these models is of novel type: jump of the order parameter coincides with its power-law singularity. Some…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 A. Lipowski

Investigating the emergence of a particular cell type is a recurring theme in models of growing cellular populations. The evolution of resistance to therapy is a classic example. Common questions are: when does the cell type first occur,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-06-19 Michael D. Nicholson , Tibor Antal

It is well established that formulating an effective constraint model of a problem of interest is crucial to the efficiency with which it can subsequently be solved. Following from the observation that it is difficult, if not impossible, to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Ian Miguel , András Z. Salamon , Christopher Stone

Under constant selection, each trait has a fixed fitness, and small mutation rates allow populations to efficiently exploit the optimal trait. Therefore it is reasonable to expect mutation rates will evolve downwards. However, we find this…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-23 Brian Mintz , Feng Fu

We study the non-equilibrium phase transition between survival and extinction of spatially extended biological populations using an agent-based model. We especially focus on the effects of global temporal fluctuations of the environmental…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-07-04 Hatem Barghathi , Skye Tackkett , Thomas Vojta

A class of models of biological population and communities with a singular equilibrium at the origin is analyzed; it is shown that these models can possess a dynamical regime of deterministic extinction, which is crucially important from…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Faina S Berezovskaya , Artem S Novozhilov , Georgy P Karev

This article studies the quasi-stationary behaviour of population processes with unbounded absorption rate, including one-dimensional birth and death processes with catastrophes and multi-dimensional birth and death processes, modeling…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-10 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

Maximum-entropy distributions are shown to appear in the probability calculus as approximations of a model by exchangeability or a model by sufficiency, the former model being preferable. The implications of this fact are discussed,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-06-27 P. G. L. Porta Mana