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Bayesian modelling enables us to accommodate complex forms of data and make a comprehensive inference, but the effect of partial misspecification of the model is a concern. One approach in this setting is to modularize the model, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Yang Liu , Robert J. B. Goudie

Bayesian nonparametric regression under a rescaled Gaussian process prior offers smoothness-adaptive function estimation with near minimax-optimal error rates. Hierarchical extensions of this approach, equipped with stochastic variable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Sheng Jiang , Surya T. Tokdar

In this paper, we use the stochastic approximation method to estimate Sliced Average Variance Estimation (SAVE). This method is known for its efficiency in recursive estimation. Stochastic approximation is particularly effective for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-25 Emmanuel De Dieu Nkou

We present a new nonparametric mixture-of-experts model for multivariate regression problems, inspired by the probabilistic k-nearest neighbors algorithm. Using a conditionally specified model, predictions for out-of-sample inputs are based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-05 Tianfang Zhang , Rasmus Bokrantz , Jimmy Olsson

In this article, we propose new Bayesian methods for selecting and estimating a sparse coefficient vector for skewed heteroscedastic response. Our novel Bayesian procedures effectively estimate the median and other quantile functions,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-04 Libo Wang , Yuanyuan Tang , Debajyoti Sinha , Debdeep Pati , Stuart Lipsitz

We consider the problem of optimizing a real-valued continuous function $f$ using a Bayesian approach, where the evaluations of $f$ are chosen sequentially by combining prior information about $f$, which is described by a random process…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-11-22 Romain Benassi , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

Non linear regression models are a standard tool for modeling real phenomena, with several applications in machine learning, ecology, econometry... Estimating the parameters of the model has garnered a lot of attention during many years. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-17 Peggy Cénac , Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Bruno Portier

To infer the parameters of mechanistic models with intractable likelihoods, techniques such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly being adopted. One of the main disadvantages of ABC in practical situations, however, is…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-03 Jonathan U Harrison , Ruth E Baker

We consider optimization of composite objective functions, i.e., of the form $f(x)=g(h(x))$, where $h$ is a black-box derivative-free expensive-to-evaluate function with vector-valued outputs, and $g$ is a cheap-to-evaluate real-valued…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-05 Raul Astudillo , Peter I. Frazier

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

Applications · Statistics 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

We consider the problem of estimating a variable number of parameters with a dynamic nature. A familiar example is finding the position of moving targets using sensor array observations. The problem is challenging in cases where either the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-03 Ashkan Panahi , Mats Viberg

We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for variable selection using Gaussian process regression, which is crucial for enhancing interpretability and model regularization. Our method employs nearest neighbor Gaussian processes, serving as…

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos , Emanuele Borgonovo , Xuefei Lu

We propose a Bayesian variable selection method in the framework of modal regression for heavy-tailed responses. An efficient expectation-maximization algorithm is employed to expedite parameter estimation. A test statistic is constructed…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Jiasong Duan , Hongmei Zhang , Xianzheng Huang

Model-based sequential approaches to discrete "black-box" optimization, including Bayesian optimization techniques, often access the same points multiple times for a given objective function in interest, resulting in many steps to find the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-29 Keisuke Morita , Yoshihiko Nishikawa , Masayuki Ohzeki

We propose an unconstrained stochastic approximation method of finding the optimal measure change (in an a priori parametric family) for Monte Carlo simulations. We consider different parametric families based on the Girsanov theorem and…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-20 Vincent Lemaire , Gilles Pagès

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-27 David Gunawan , Robert Kohn , David Nott

Sampling-based planning is the predominant paradigm for motion planning in robotics. Most sampling-based planners use a global random sampling scheme to guarantee probabilistic completeness. However, most schemes are often inefficient as…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Tin Lai , Philippe Morere , Fabio Ramos , Gilad Francis

We provide a method for approximating Bayesian inference using rejection sampling. We not only make the process efficient, but also dramatically reduce the memory required relative to conventional methods by combining rejection sampling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-12-04 Nathan Wiebe , Christopher Granade , Ashish Kapoor , Krysta M Svore

Poisson log-linear models are ubiquitous in many applications, and one of the most popular approaches for parametric count regression. In the Bayesian context, however, there are no sufficient specific computational tools for efficient…

Computation · Statistics 2022-09-02 Laura D'Angelo , Antonio Canale
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