Related papers: Sparse Portfolio selection via Bayesian Multiple t…

This paper proposes a machine learning-based framework for asset selection and portfolio construction, termed the Best-Path Algorithm Sparse Graphical Model (BPASGM). The method extends the Best-Path Algorithm (BPA) by mapping linear and…

Bayesian model selection, with precedents in George and McCulloch (1993) and Abramovich et al. (1998), support credibility measures that relate model uncertainty, but computation can be costly when sparse priors are approximate. We design…

Harvey et al. (2010) extended the Bayesian estimation method by Sahu et al. (2003) to a multivariate skew-elliptical distribution with a general skewness matrix, and applied it to Bayesian portfolio optimization with higher moments.…

This paper explores several strategies for Forensic Voice Comparison (FVC), aimed at improving the performance of the LRs when using generative Gaussian score-to-LR models. First, different anchoring strategies are proposed, with the…

We propose a general algorithmic framework for Bayesian model selection. A spike-and-slab Laplacian prior is introduced to model the underlying structural assumption. Using the notion of effective resistance, we derive an EM-type algorithm…

Bayesian optimization is highly effective for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions, but it faces significant computational challenges due to the cubic per-iteration cost of Gaussian processes, which results in a total time…

We consider the problem of estimating a sparse linear regression vector $\beta^*$ under a gaussian noise model, for the purpose of both prediction and model selection. We assume that prior knowledge is available on the sparsity pattern,…

In this paper, we consider a new problem of portfolio optimization using stochastic information. In a setting where there is some uncertainty, we ask how to best select $k$ potential solutions, with the goal of optimizing the value of the…

Graphical models are a powerful tool to estimate a high-dimensional inverse covariance (precision) matrix, which has been applied for a portfolio allocation problem. The assumption made by these models is a sparsity of the precision matrix.…

We investigate the portfolio selection problem against the systemic risk which is measured by CoVaR. We first demonstrate that the systemic risk of pure stock portfolios is essentially uncontrollable due to the contagion effect and the…

Financial experts and analysts seek to predict the variability of financial markets. In particular, the correct prediction of this variability ensures investors successful investments. However, there has been a big trend in finance in the…

In this work, we propose a modified Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) specifically designed for mixture models and hierarchical structures. This criterion incorporates the determinant of the Hessian matrix of the log-likelihood function,…

This paper introduces a feasible and practical Bayesian method for unit root testing in financial time series. We propose a convenient approximation of the Bayes factor in terms of the Bayesian Information Criterion as a straightforward and…

Motivation: Modelling methods that find structure in data are necessary with the current large volumes of genomic data, and there have been various efforts to find subsets of genes exhibiting consistent patterns over subsets of treatments.…

We study the Markowitz portfolio selection problem with unknown drift vector in the multidimensional framework. The prior belief on the uncertain expected rate of return is modeled by an arbitrary probability law, and a Bayesian approach…

Approving and assessing new drugs is complex because multiple criteria must be considered simultaneously. A common approach is benefit-risk analysis, often conducted within a Bayesian framework to account for uncertainty and combine data…

Replication studies are increasingly conducted but there is no established statistical criterion for replication success. We propose a novel approach combining reverse-Bayes analysis with Bayesian hypothesis testing: a sceptical prior is…

The existing approaches to sparse wealth allocations (1) are limited to low-dimensional setup when the number of assets is less than the sample size; (2) lack theoretical analysis of sparse wealth allocations and their impact on portfolio…

Bayesian design of experiments and sample size calculations usually rely on complex Monte Carlo simulations in practice. Obtaining bounds on Bayesian notions of the false-positive rate and power therefore often lack closed-form or…

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…