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Prediction markets show considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. Here, machine learning markets for multivariate systems are defined, and a utility-based framework is established for their analysis. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-03-19 Amos Storkey

To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-17 Jaideep Singh , Matloob Khushi

This study explores the use of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) for real-time cryptocurrency price prediction and optimized trading strategies. Given the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, traditional forecasting models often fall…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-12 Shamima Nasrin Tumpa , Kehelwala Dewage Gayan Maduranga

Financial literature consists of ample research on similarity and comparison of financial assets and securities such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. However, going beyond correlations or aggregate statistics has been arduous since…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-27 Jerinsh Jeyapaulraj , Dhruv Desai , Peter Chu , Dhagash Mehta , Stefano Pasquali , Philip Sommer

The literature on using yield curves to forecast recessions customarily uses 10-year--three-month Treasury yield spread without verification on the pair selection. This study investigates whether the predictive ability of spread can be…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-19 Jaehyuk Choi , Desheng Ge , Kyu Ho Kang , Sungbin Sohn

Bitcoin, as one of the most popular cryptocurrency, is recently attracting much attention of investors. Bitcoin price prediction task is consequently a rising academic topic for providing valuable insights and suggestions. Existing bitcoin…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-25 Xiao Li , Weili Wu

This graduate textbook on machine learning tells a story of how patterns in data support predictions and consequential actions. Starting with the foundations of decision making, we cover representation, optimization, and generalization as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-27 Moritz Hardt , Benjamin Recht

This research evaluates the performance of an Artificial Neural Network based prediction system that was employed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange for the period 21-Sep-2016 to 11-Oct-2016. It is a follow-up to a previous paper in which the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-12-09 Barack Wamkaya Wanjawa

Machine learning has emerged as a significant approach to efficiently tackle electronic structure problems. Despite its potential, there is less guarantee for the model to generalize to unseen data that hinders its application in real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Gengyuan Hu , Gengchen Wei , Zekun Lou , Philip H. S. Torr , Wanli Ouyang , Han-sen Zhong , Chen Lin

This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…

General Economics · Economics 2023-01-03 Emanuel Kohlscheen

International trade policies have recently garnered attention for limiting cross-border exchange of essential goods (e.g. steel, aluminum, soybeans, and beef). Since trade critically affects employment and wages, predicting future patterns…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-09 Feras Batarseh , Munisamy Gopinath , Ganesh Nalluru , Jayson Beckman

Machine learning is central to empirical asset pricing, but portfolio construction still relies on point predictions and largely ignores asset-specific estimation uncertainty. We propose a simple change: sort assets using…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-01-05 Yan Liu , Ye Luo , Zigan Wang , Xiaowei Zhang

We present a thorough empirical study on real interest rates by also including risk aversion through the introduction of the market price of risk. With the view of complex systems science and its multidisciplinary approach, we use the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-12-29 J. Doyne Farmer , John Geanakoplos , Matteo G. Richiardi , Miquel Montero , Josep Perelló , Jaume Masoliver

This paper presents a deep learning framework based on Long Short-term Memory Network(LSTM) that predicts price movement of cryptocurrencies from trade-by-trade data. The main focus of this study is on predicting short-term price changes in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-16 Qi Zhao

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-12 Sidra Mehtab , Jaydip Sen

The melting temperature is important for materials design because of its relationship with thermal stability, synthesis, and processing conditions. Current empirical and computational melting point estimation techniques are limited in…

In recent years, machine learning and deep learning have become popular methods for financial data analysis, including financial textual data, numerical data, and graphical data. This paper proposes to use sentiment analysis to extract…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-27 Yang Li , Yi Pan

Robust yield curve estimation is crucial in fixed-income markets for accurate instrument pricing, effective risk management, and informed trading strategies. Traditional approaches, including the bootstrapping method and parametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Sina Molavipour , Alireza M. Javid , Cassie Ye , Björn Löfdahl , Mikhail Nechaev

Modeling the behavior of stock price data has always been one of the challengeous applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) due to its high complexity and dependence on various conditions. Recent studies show…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-14 Xinyuan Song

Sub-new stock price prediction, forecasting the price trends of stocks listed less than one year, is crucial for effective quantitative trading. While deep learning methods have demonstrated effectiveness in predicting old stock prices,…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-08-23 Linghao Wang , Zhen Liu , Peitian Ma , Qianli Ma