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Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for tackling complex regression and classification tasks, yet its success often hinges on the quality of training data. This study introduces an ML paradigm inspired by domain knowledge…
Probabilities of causation (PoC) offer valuable insights for informed decision-making. This paper introduces novel variants of PoC-controlled direct, natural direct, and natural indirect probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS). These…
Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to…
This chapter provides a overview of Bayesian inference, mostly emphasising that it is a universal method for summarising uncertainty and making estimates and predictions using probability statements conditional on observed data and an…
We introduce games with probabilistic uncertainty, a natural model for controller synthesis in which the controller observes the state of the system through imprecise sensors that provide correct information about the current state with a…
It is shown that an equiprobability hypothesis leads to a scenario in which it is possible to predict the outcome of a single toss of a fair coin with a success probability greater than 50%. We discuss whether this hypothesis might be…
Within the Kolmogorov theory of probability, Bayes' rule allows one to perform statistical inference by relating conditional probabilities to unconditional probabilities. As we show here, however, there is a continuous set of alternative…
Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) are studied in a general framework. First, different constructions are proven to be equivalent. Second, we introduce a coupling between two PDMPs following the same differential flow which…
There is currently a renewed interest in the Bayesian predictive approach to statistics. This paper offers a review on foundational concepts and focuses on predictive modeling, which by directly reasoning on prediction, bypasses inferential…
We present a PAC-Bayes-style generalization bound which enables the replacement of the KL-divergence with a variety of Integral Probability Metrics (IPM). We provide instances of this bound with the IPM being the total variation metric and…
Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are essential for interpreting black-box models, yet they often become invalid when models are slightly changed. Existing methods for generating robust CFEs are often limited to specific types of models,…
Probabilistic programming languages and modeling toolkits are two modular ways to build and reuse stochastic models and inference procedures. Combining strengths of both, we express models and inference as generalized coroutines in the same…
Probabilities of causation (PoCs), such as the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), are important tools for decision making but are generally not point identifiable. Existing work has derived bounds for these quantities using…
We tackle the problem of conditioning probabilistic programs on distributions of observable variables. Probabilistic programs are usually conditioned on samples from the joint data distribution, which we refer to as deterministic…
We study the problem of conditional predictive inference on multiple outcomes missing at random (MAR) -- or equivalently, under covariate shift. While the weighted conformal prediction offers a tool for inference under covariate shift with…
Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an…
We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…
In this article we propose a qualitative (ordinal) counterpart for the Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes model (POMDP) in which the uncertainty, as well as the preferences of the agent, are modeled by possibility distributions.…
I propose a normative updating rule, extended Bayesianism, for the incorporation of probabilistic information arising from the process of becoming more aware. Extended Bayesianism generalizes standard Bayesian updating to allow the…
The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…