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Testing whether a probability distribution is compatible with a given Bayesian network is a fundamental task in the field of causal inference, where Bayesian networks model causal relations. Here we consider the class of causal structures…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-04 Aditya Kela , Kai von Prillwitz , Johan Aberg , Rafael Chaves , David Gross

We define a generalized likelihood function based on uncertainty measures and show that maximizing such a likelihood function for different measures induces different types of classifiers. In the probabilistic framework, we obtain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Loo-Nin Teow , Kia-Fock Loe

The Boltzmann distribution (the most probable distribution) is one of the most important concepts used in physics, chemistry and biology. Suppose we put the system initially in one of the less probable state then the system will find the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-09-23 Aniruddha Chakraborty

Binary classifiers trained on a certain proportion of positive items introduce a bias when applied to data sets with different proportions of positive items. Most solutions for dealing with this issue assume that some information on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-18 Marco J. H. Puts , Piet J. H. Daas

The main result presented in this article is that probability can fundamentally be characterized as a subset of conditional expectation induced by a plausible preorder on random quantities. This is justified by the fact that probability is…

Logic · Mathematics 2024-06-14 Ladislav Mečíř

The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-08-29 Vesselin I. Dimitrov

In Bayesian classification, it is important to establish a probabilistic model for each class for likelihood estimation. Most of the previous methods modeled the probability distribution in the whole sample space. However, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-14 Chengsheng Mao , Lijuan Lu , Bin Hu

The validity OF a causal model can be tested ONLY IF the model imposes constraints ON the probability distribution that governs the generated data. IN the presence OF unmeasured variables, causal models may impose two types OF constraints :…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Jin Tian , Judea Pearl

While the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework offers an elegant solution to the problem of decision making under uncertainty, one question is how to appropriately select the prior distribution. One idea is to employ a worst-case prior.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Thomas Kleine Buening , Christos Dimitrakakis , Hannes Eriksson , Divya Grover , Emilio Jorge

Motivated by real-world machine learning applications, we analyze approximations to the non-asymptotic fundamental limits of statistical classification. In the binary version of this problem, given two training sequences generated according…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-12-07 Lin Zhou , Vincent Y. F. Tan , Mehul Motani

Mode {also called MAP} estimation, mean estimation and median estimation are examined here to determine when they can be safely used to derive {posterior) cost minimizing estimates. (These are all Bayes procedures, using the mode. mean. or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-12 David Sher

An admissible observation operator is zero-class admissible if the norm of the output map tends to zero as the time tends to zero. Sufficient and necessary conditions for zero-class admissibility of observation operators are developed and a…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2008-10-07 B. Jacob , J. R. Partington , S. Pott

Classification is the task of predicting the class labels of objects based on the observation of their features. In contrast, quantification has been defined as the task of determining the prevalences of the different sorts of class labels…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-15 Dirk Tasche

One of the central themes in the classification task is the estimation of class posterior probability at a new point $\bf{x}$. The vast majority of classifiers output a score for $\bf{x}$, which is monotonically related to the posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-16 Georgi Nalbantov , Svetoslav Ivanov

When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp.\ functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-01 Hermann G. Matthies , Elmar Zander , Bojana Rosic , Alexander Litvinenko

We describe a new method for evaluating Bayes factors. The key idea is to introduce a hypermodel in which the competing models are components of a mixture distribution. Inference for the mixing probabilities then yields estimates of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-16 Philip D. O'Neill , Theodore Kypraios

We propose a method of classifying the operation of a system into finitely many modes. Each mode has its own objectives for the system's behaviour and its own mathematical models and algorithms designed to accomplish its objectives. A…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-07-14 Edwin Beggs , John V. Tucker

This paper investigates the consequences of encoding a $K$-valued categorical variable incorrectly as $K$ bits via one-hot encoding, when using a Na\"{\i}ve Bayes classifier. This gives rise to a product-of-Bernoullis (PoB) assumption,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Christopher K. I. Williams

Given a finite collection of probability measures defined on subsets of a measurable space, how can we determine if they are compatible, in the sense that they can be realized as conditional distributions of a single probability measure on…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-11 Owen D. Biesel , Colin McSwiggen , Ted Theodosopoulos , Michael G. Titelbaum

Objective prior distributions represent an important tool that allows one to have the advantages of using the Bayesian framework even when information about the parameters of a model is not available. The usual objective approaches work off…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-25 Fabrizio Leisen , Cristiano Villa , Stephen G. Walker
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