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The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Freddie Bickford Smith , Jannik Kossen , Eleanor Trollope , Mark van der Wilk , Adam Foster , Tom Rainforth

In this paper we introduce the concept of Abelian integrals in differential equations for an arbitrary vector bundle on $\P1$ with a meromorphic connection. In this general context we give an upper bound for the numbers we are looking for.

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hossein Movasati

A collective chaotic phase with power law scaling of activity events is observed in a disordered mean field network of purely excitatory leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with short-term synaptic plasticity. The dynamical phase diagram…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2017-03-20 Fabrizio Pittorino , Miguel Ibáñez-Berganza , Matteo di Volo , Alessandro Vezzani , Raffaella Burioni

We explain Barkhausen noise in magnetic systems in terms of avalanches near a plain old critical point in the hysteretic zero-temperature random-field Ising model. The avalanche size distribution has a universal scaling function, making…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-28 Olga Perković , Karin Dahmen , James P. Sethna

We propose a new parametrization of the distribution of the initial eccentricity in a nucleus-nucleus collision at a fixed centrality, which we name the Elliptic Power distribution. It is a two-parameter distribution, where one of the…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2014-09-04 Li Yan , Jean-Yves Ollitrault , Arthur M. Poskanzer

Many-body localized (MBL) systems fail to reach thermal equilibrium under their own dynamics, even though they are interacting, nonintegrable, and in an extensively excited state. One instability towards thermalization of MBL systems is the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-06-27 Hyunsoo Ha , Alan Morningstar , David A. Huse

Let $X_1,...,X_n$ be $n$ independent unbounded real random variables which have common, roughly speaking, light-tailed type distribution. Denote by $S_1^n$ their sum and by $\pi^{a_n}$ the tilted density of $X_1$, where $a_n…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-07 Zhansheng Cao

Spontaneous brain activity in the absence of external stimuli is not random but contains complex dynamical structures such as neuronal avalanches with power-law duration and size distributions. These experimental observations have been…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-12-04 Lik-Chun Chan , Tsz-Fung Kok , Emily S. C. Ching

A new method is developed to represent probabilistic relations on multiple random events. Where previously knowledge bases containing probabilistic rules were used for this purpose, here a probability distribution over the relations is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Manfred Jaeger

Decomposing predictive uncertainty into epistemic (model ignorance) and aleatoric (data ambiguity) components is central to reliable decision making, yet most methods estimate both from the same predictive distribution. Recent empirical and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Tanmoy Mukherjee , Marius Kloft , Pierre Marquis , Zied Bouraoui

The negative binomial distribution is self similar: If the spectrum over the whole rapidity range gives rise to a negative binomial, in absence of correlation and if the source is unique, also a partial range in rapidity gives rise to the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-10-30 Giorgio Calucci , Daniele Treleani

Deep neural networks and brains both learn and share superficial similarities: processing nodes are likened to neurons and adjustable weights are likened to modifiable synapses. But can a unified theoretical framework be found to underlie…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-09-29 Arsham Ghavasieh , Meritxell Vila-Minana , Akanksha Khurd , John Beggs , Gerardo Ortiz , Santo Fortunato

The entropy of network ensembles characterizes the amount of information encoded in the network structure, and can be used to quantify network complexity, and the relevance of given structural properties observed in real network datasets…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2014-06-18 Kartik Anand , Dimitri Krioukov , Ginestra Bianconi

The paper deals with the distribution of singular values of the input-output Jacobian of deep untrained neural networks in the limit of their infinite width. The Jacobian is the product of random matrices where the independent rectangular…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-13 Leonid Pastur

Numerous systems ranging from deformation of materials to earthquakes exhibit bursty dynamics, which consist of a sequence of events with a broad event size distribution. Very often these events are observed to be temporally correlated or…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-12-05 Sanja Janićević , Lasse Laurson , Knut Jørgen Måløy , Stéphane Santucci , Mikko J. Alava

We show that in a broad class of directed abelian sandpile models that had been expected to have the same exponents as the Dhar-Ramaswamy model, the avalanche exponent depends upon the details of the interaction, calling into question the…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Rick Tully , George Reiter

Biological sequences do not come at random. Instead, they appear with particular frequencies that reflect properties of the associated system or phenomenon. Knowing how biological sequences are distributed in sequence space is thus a…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-04-18 Wei-Chia Chen , Juannan Zhou , David M. McCandlish

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have become one of the promising approaches for uncertainty estimation due to the solid theorical foundations. However, the performance of BNNs is affected by the ability of catching uncertainty. Instead of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Shiyu Shen , Bin Pan , Tianyang Shi , Tao Li , Zhenwei Shi

Aleatoric uncertainty quantification seeks for distributional knowledge of random responses, which is important for reliability analysis and robustness improvement in machine learning applications. Previous research on aleatoric uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-10 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

The means by which cortical neural networks are able to efficiently solve inference problems remains an open question in computational neuroscience. Recently, abstract models of Bayesian computation in neural circuits have been proposed,…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-02-24 Dimitri Probst , Mihai A. Petrovici , Ilja Bytschok , Johannes Bill , Dejan Pecevski , Johannes Schemmel , Karlheinz Meier
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